Jay Ajayi

Week 4 vs. New Orleans Saints (game in London)

The Saints have allowed the second-most PPR points to opposing fantasy RBs. Jay Ajayi should see a ton of work in a fantastic matchup. With a banged up knee, though, Ajayi went from playing 94% of snaps in Week 1 to less than 60% in Week 2. Consider Ajayi a top-12 RB still, but given what he's playing through, he may not reach Week 1 snap levels and top-5 RB status this week. The good news is he put in a full practice Thursday, with no doubts he'll play. Did we mention Ajayi was born in England too?! London narrative!

Week 2 at Los Angeles Chargers

After an odd Week 1 bye due to a hurricane, Ajayi debuts on the road in Week 2. Head coach Adam Gase said this week Ajayi is dealing with knee soreness but that it's not a big deal. There's no big cause for concern; therefore, Ajayi is in line to be a top-12 RB on the road against the Chargers, as he should still catch some passes even if Miami falls behind. Don't forget C.J. Anderson just put up 88 total yards in a split backfield last week against this Chargers defense.

Fantasy Upside

Jay Ajayi was the RB8 in PPR in total points and RB11 in PPR fantasy points per game once he received double-digit carries per game starting in Week 5. In standard leagues, Ajayi was slightly better from Week 5-17, finishing ninth in fantasy points per game. Plus this from Adam Gase in the offseason: "If I can get him between 22-25 [carries] that's ideal, and it's a good chance we're winning that ball game.” That would be an increase from Ajayi's 21.9 touches per game from Week 5 on, which means Ajayi should see heavy volume in 2017.

Fantasy Downside

It's hard to think of a running back that potentially has his week-to-week fantasy consistency more tied to one offensive lineman than Jay Ajayi, and that lineman is center Mike Pouncey. Ajayi played five games with Pouncey last year and averaged 20.7 PPR fantasy points per game. That ranked sixth among backs during that span. However, from Week 11-17 without Pouncey, Ajayi was only 18th among RBs with 12.8 fantasy points per game. The good news is Pouncey had successful stem cell treatments on his hip in the offseason and is on pace to start the season healthy.

2017 Bottom Line

If Ajayi was 18th among RBs in games without Pouncey but is scheduled to see an even heavier workload, that indicates Ajayi has a stable fantasy floor. Todd Gurley proved last season volume is king, despite terrible efficiency. However, the upside for Ajayi can't be denied, especially if Miami incorporates him more in the passing game, something he did well at Boise State. Overall, Miami just didn't run many plays last year (last in the league). If the third-down offense and defense can be better, that only means more opportunities for Ajayi. In the early second round, there are few RBw with more projected volume than Ajayi.