Fantasy Upside
Last season, 4for4 contributor Steve Andress asked multiple Colts defensive players which running back they faced was the toughest to tackle. Their answer was Ajayi, on a schedule that included C.J. Anderson, LeSean McCoy, Arian Foster, Chris Ivory, Mark Ingram, and Jonathan Stewart. His 2016 fantasy upside is strictly a combination of potential and opportunity though after just 56 touches as a rookie and 3.8 ypc. Under Adam Gase though, running backs have flourished. Matt Forte finished as the #9 RB in standard leagues in just 13 games in 2015, and C.J. Anderson was the #11 RB in 2014, despite starting only seven of 15 games. If Ajayi is the lead back in this offense and beats out Arian Foster, his ceiling his high, especially in standard leagues.
Fantasy Downside
The signing of Arian Foster in Miami took a bite out of the offseason optimism for Ajayi. Reports are Foster will, at the least, be the passing down back in Miami, which really hurts the upside for Ajayi in PPR leagues. The Miami Herald reported shortly after the signing of Foster that both would get “plenty of carries”. It’s possible Foster could win the job outright too, crushing any upside Ajayi might have. This backfield is one drafters must keep an eye on in training camp and the preseason in order to draft this backfield properly.
Bottom Line
Ajayi’s ADP has dropped from the 5th round as far as the 7th round in MFL10’s after the Foster signing. That would present great value if Ajayi wins the starting job, but for now we rank Ajayi just ahead of Foster in standard leagues with a RBBC projection. In PPR leagues, we have Foster ranked ahead of Ajayi, with the game script likely to favor the passing down back more often in Miami. In either scenario, Ajayi is only a flex consideration until there’s more clarity in this backfield.
