Fantasy Upside
Jerry Jeudy had a mixed bag his rookie year. Despite gaining the sixth most AirYards (1611) among all WRs, the second most targets amongst all rookie WRs (113), and playing without Courtland Sutton for most of the year, he failed to crack 1,000 yards, while also leading all rookie WRs in dropped passes (13) for the year in 2020, which many are putting a lot of emphasis on, but we know at 4for4 that drops have basically a zero correlation when looking at next seasons projections. Jeudy also had the third-highest AirYard market share and did this as a rookie with (43.6%) of the Broncos AirYards. On the other hand, he only saw 74 catchable balls out of 113 targets with Drew Lock, Brett Rypien, and Jeff Driskel. With the addition of Teddy Bridgewater, who seems like the starter for the Denver Broncos, Jeudy should see more favorable targets since Bridgewater had the 8th highest completion percentage among QBs that passed the ball for more than 20+ AirYards. He was also sixth among all qualified rookies in yards per route run, a stat that bodes well for Jeudys efficiency as a WR.
Fantasy Downside
It’s hard to imagine another season of Jerry Jeudy garnering more than 100 targets while failing to eclipse 1,000 yards again, but if Drew Lock were to win the starting job again over Teddy Bridgewater, it would seem like that would be the most likely outcome while Courtland Sutton comes back and gains most of the quality end zone looks while also becoming the alpha WR again in the Broncos WR room. We could also see a scenario where Vic Fangio can’t decide and decides to play musical chairs with his QBs which won’t help the timing and overall chemistry between the QBs and their receiving corps.
2021 Bottom Line
Jerry Jeudy is an exciting second-year wide receiver who has all the tools to blossom and have that second-year breakout that we’ve been seeing as a pattern in the NFL. In 2020 it was DK Metcalf and A.J. Brown. In 2019, it was Calvin Ridley and D.J. Moore. In 2018 it was Juju Smith-Schuster and Chris Godwin. All significantly increased their fantasy point output going from Year 1 to Year 2 in the NFL and Jeudy could be next if Teddy Bridgewater ends up winning the job over Drew Lock. Currently, we’ve got him ranked as the WR34, while he has an UnderDog Fantasy ADP of WR31, the risk is baked in of a QB controversy, his 13 drops from a year ago, and Courtland Sutton coming back but there’s a range of outcomes where Jeudy takes over as the alpha and blows his ADP out of the water, if you feel risky, Jeudy is a great draft pick in your 2021 drafts.
