Fantasy Upside
Jonathan Stewart finished last season strong, with over 20 attempts in eight of his last nine regular season games. The Panthers made him the primary ball carrier after years of sharing time with DeAngelo Williams, and that should continue this year as well. The Panther offensive line is still a work in progress, but guard Trai Turner looks like a keeper after a strong rookie season, and Ryan Kalil remains one of the best centers in the game. Under offensive coordinator Mike Shula, the Panthers have never ranked below eighth in rushing attempts and have been a top-five team in red zone rushing percentage since he took over three years ago. As long as he’s healthy, Stewart has a high floor as a starting fantasy back.
Fantasy Downside
Stewart has always struggled with nagging injuries that sometimes hobble him, and often force him to miss games. He missed three starts last year, and he’s still recovering from hurting his foot in the Super Bowl, although he’s participating fully in early camps and should be ready to go for the season. The Panthers run the ball a lot in the red zone, but they also give a ton of those carries to the fullback position and to quarterback Cam Newton. Quarterbacks and fullbacks have received 60 percent of the team’s carries inside the five-yard-line since Shula was hired, meaning that a lot of Stewart’s touchdown opportunities get vulture away from him.
2016 Bottom Line
With a history of injuries, Stewart is a risky player to bank on at his current ADP in the fourth or fifth round. He’s a high volume back when he’s on the field, making him a solid RB2 in all league formats, but the risks associated with him make a fifth round price tag in most leagues a bit too high. He’s also unlikely to get healthier and more productive at age 29, when most runners tend to be on the downside of their careers.
