Justin Herbert

Fantasy Upside
Justin Herbert became the first Chargers' player to win Offensive Rookie of the Year honors since 1974. Herbert, as the sixth overall selection, was the third quarterback off the board behind Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa. Instead of Tyrod Taylor, it was Herbert who ended up stepping into the big shoes of Philip Rivers and the rookie proved more than capable of replacing the Chargers' great. Herbert set NFL rookie records for total touchdowns (36), passing touchdowns (31), completions (396), multi-passing touchdown games (10), games with 300 yards passing (eight) and three-passing touchdown games (six). He was just 39 yards short of besting Andrew Luck's rookie record of 4,374 yards passing. The good news? Herbert knows, even after an impressive rookie campaign, there are plenty of areas of his game to improve. "I think if I know more about defenses, coverages, pressures, all of that, I think that better helps our team," he said.

Fantasy Downside
With a new coach in Brandon Staley and new coordinator in Joe Lombardi, Herbert will be learning his second offense in two seasons. Similar changes have hindered other young QBs in the past from making the next leap.

2021 Bottom Line
We're not all that worried about the downside. Look for his talent, aggressive approach, an upgraded offensive line and a strong supporting cast to help Herbert overcome the change-related challenges he faces.

Week 16 vs Denver

Herbert had a solid performance last week against the Las Vegas Raiders as he completed 22-of-32 passes for 314 yards, two touchdowns and ran for 14 yards and an additional touchdown. What a relief this performance was! Herbert had three straight games of less than 16 fantasy points (4pt-PaTD) and was starting to string together “rookie” performances. With a platoon of injured players, Herbert was able to have a solid week and even won the game in overtime on a QB sneak for his final TD.

Week 16 brings on a familiar foe in the Denver Broncos who currently rank 11th in aFPA to QBs this season. Herbert had a mixed game last time out against Denver in Week 8 as he threw for 278 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. The rookie signal caller will be without crucial weapons in Hunter Henry and Mike Williams, and potentially Keenan Allen who will be a game-time decision. Still, Herbert should be counted on as a low-end QB1 in the fantasy title game.

Week 14 vs Atlanta

Herbert had by far the worst game of his young career last week against the New England Patriots as he completed 15-of-31 passes for 209 yards, two interceptions and zero touchdowns. Yikes. Amid a turbulent year for the Patriots, Bill Belichick’s renowned prowess for crushing rookie QBs got lost in the shuffle, but boy was that coaching on full display in this one. This game marked Herbert’s second-lowest yardage total of the season and the first time this year he has gone scoreless, truly a disaster scenario for fantasy managers leaning on their QB1 in the regular-season finale.

Week 14 brings a shot of redemption for Herbert, and what better way to do so than against the Atlanta Falcons who ranked 22nd in aFPA to QBs this season. Herbert’s last two outings have been rough, averaging 262.5 yards while amassing three interceptions to only one touchdown. More a product of poor coaching than hitting the proverbial “rookie wall,” Herbert has shown more than enough talent this season to overcome poor playcalling. Herbert should be fired up as a high-end QB1 in this one and is poised to have major success in the fantasy playoffs with subsequent matchups against Las Vegas and Denver.