Fantasy Upside
With a below-average supporting cast, Kyler Murray returned in Week 10 from a torn ACL and preceded to clock in as the QB10 in points per game (18.3) until the end of the season. In response, the team handed him a legit WR1 in Marvin Harrison Jr., a strong backup RB in Trey Benson, a guard, and another tight end by the time the third round of the NFL Draft ended. Despite the ACL recovery, Murray would finish the season with 244 rushing yards and three touchdowns, which shows us what kind of ceiling he could have as he heads into 2024 fully healthy. The boost in offensive weapons and a full year under this Drew Petzing offense could equate to a top-6 positional finish.
Fantasy Downside
The ACL issue was not the first run-in with injuries for the diminutive quarterback in the NFL. In 2021, the year before the knee injury, Murray missed three games with an ankle sprain, a sign that mounting lower-body issues could eventually sap some of the rushing prowess that makes him a fantasy target. Murray had 20 designed QB runs upon his return last year (2.5/game); those could be reduced now that James Conner has a legitimate backup, with Benson alleviating the workload.
2024 Bottom Line
Even though Murray is short in stature, there's no reason to label him "injury-prone" just because of two freak injuries. He offers far more upside than the pocket passers he is going well after in drafts and should be considered a bona fide QB1, as a dual-threat quarterback who can single-handedly when you weeks.