Fantasy Upside
Latavius Murray has fantasy upside because being any good might not be a requirement for fantasy success behind the Oakland improved offensive line this year. This line is arguably as good or better than the Dallas Cowboys, the class of the league in run blocking. The Raiders signed Pro Football Focus’s third-highest-graded run-blocking offensive lineman this offseason, Kelechi Osemele, who is a huge upgrade at left guard from JaMarcus Webb. The Raiders will be a much better team in 2016 and have one of the easiest schedules in the league. This favors the idea of an increase in volume for the running game under more frequent positive game scripts.
Fantasy Downside
The concern with Murray going forward has to be anchored by the fact that he is not only inefficient, but also isn’t consistent on a carry-to-carry basis. Rookie DeAndre Washington could cause Murray to lose quite a bit of receiving production, which is a significant blow to his value in fantasy. Washington has a proven track record of above average receiving ability, totaling 124 receptions in college, more than Murray has had in college and the NFL combined.
2016 Bottom Line
According to Joe Holka’s Rushing Expectation, Latavius Murray underperformed by 6.9% percent in the run game in regards to his Expected Success Rate. Murray is still the heavy favorite to lead this backfield in carries and it is quite possible that, barring injury, he gets off to a hot start behind against a soft schedule. Rookie DeAndre Washington could force himself into PPR relevance if he can show improvement in pass protection. The situation is great in Oakland for whatever back takes advantage of it.
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