Latavius Murray
  • Latavius Murray

  • RB
  • ,
  • 34
  • 230 lbs
  • 6' 3"
  • Central Florida
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Scouting report

by Joe Holka

OAK RB Latavius Murray - Week 8, 2016 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 8 at Tampa Bay
In his return from a toe injury, Murray out-touched the rest of this backfield rotation 20-11 in Week 7 en route to a 18-59-2 stat line. This week, contrary to common narratives, the Bucs run defense comes in as a bottom-half unit according to aFPA. Murray’s inefficiency is somewhat irrelevant if he continues to see the increased volume he did in his return. He is a low-end RB2 in Week 8.

by Joe Holka

OAK RB Latavius Murray - Week 7, 2016 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 7 at Jacksonville
Latavius Murray (toe) is expected to play against the Jaguars in Week 7 after missing the past two games. Even while healthy, Murray’s role has been nowhere near the 20-plus touches like he was accustomed to in 2015 and he didn't receive over 15 carries in a game during the first four weeks of the season. His volume is unknown, even in a decent matchup.

by Joe Holka

OAK RB Latavius Murray - Week 4, 2016 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 4 at Baltimore
Latavius Murray had a 10-carry, 37-yard, one touchdown performance in Week 3. He had just a 42.11 percent rushing share after averaging 16.6 rush attempts, for 66.6 rushing yards and 0.375 rush TDs per game last season. HIs volume is a huge issue this year as compared to last. The Raiders are a slight road underdog against the Ravens, who are are on the low end of RB aFPA. The Raiders are a team that was projected to be able to lean heavily on the power running game, but the coaching staff has recently stated it will be a rotation. Murray will be a RB2 against the Ravens.

by Joe Holka

OAK RB Latavius Murray - Week 3, 2016 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 3 at Tennessee
Latavius Murray had a 14-carry, 57-yard performance in a 28-35 loss against the Falcons in Week 2, where he added six receptions for 44 yards and played 48% of the snaps. He had just a 53.85% rushing share after averaging 16.6 rush attempts, for 66.6 rushing yards and 0.375 rush TDs per game last season. Murray received 84.0 percent of Oakland’s RB carries inside the 10-yard line in 2015 and still has 75% of the red zone carries through the first two weeks. He is a slight road underdog against the Titans, who are in the middle of the pack in RB aFPA. The Raiders are a team that is projected to be much better this year and with an improved defense, will be able to lean heavily on the power running game but the coaching staff has recently stated it will be a rotation. Murray will be a RB2 against the Titans.

by Joe Holka

OAK RB Latavius Murray - Week 2, 2016 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 2 vs. Atlanta
Latavius Murray had a 14-carry, 59-yard performance in a 35-34 win over the Saints, where he added a reception for 13 yards and played 62% of the snaps. He had just a 53.85% rushing share after averaging 16.6 rush attempts, for 66.6 rushing yards and 0.375 rush TDs per game last season.Murray received 84.0 percent of Oakland’s RB carries inside the 10-yard line in 2015, but just 33.3% of the red zone carries in Week 1. He is a road favorite against the Falcons, who are near the top of the league in RB aFPA. The Raiders are a team that is projected to be much better this year and with an improved defense, will be able to lean heavily on the power running game. Murray will be a low end RB1 against the Falcons.

by Joe Holka

OAK RB Latavius Murray - Week 1, 2016 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 1 at New Orleans
Latavius Murray had 307 total touches, fourth in the NFL last year, and the Raiders signed stud offensive lineman Kelechi Osemele this offseason. Murray comes into Week 1 averaging 16.6 rush attempts, for 66.6 rushing yards and 0.375 rush TDs per game last season. The Raiders are road underdogs against the Saints, who are near the top of the league in RB aFPA. Murray received 84.0 percent of Oakland’s RB carries inside the 10-yard line in 2015. The Raiders are a team projected to be much better this year and with an improved defense, will be able to lean heavily on the power running game. Murray will be a low end RB1 against the Saints.

by Joe Holka

OAK RB Latavius Murray - 2016 Fantasy Football Outlook

Fantasy Upside
Latavius Murray has fantasy upside because being any good might not be a requirement for fantasy success behind the Oakland improved offensive line this year. This line is arguably as good or better than the Dallas Cowboys, the class of the league in run blocking. The Raiders signed Pro Football Focus’s third-highest-graded run-blocking offensive lineman this offseason, Kelechi Osemele, who is a huge upgrade at left guard from JaMarcus Webb. The Raiders will be a much better team in 2016 and have one of the easiest schedules in the league. This favors the idea of an increase in volume for the running game under more frequent positive game scripts.

Fantasy Downside
The concern with Murray going forward has to be anchored by the fact that he is not only inefficient, but also isn’t consistent on a carry-to-carry basis. Rookie DeAndre Washington could cause Murray to lose quite a bit of receiving production, which is a significant blow to his value in fantasy. Washington has a proven track record of above average receiving ability, totaling 124 receptions in college, more than Murray has had in college and the NFL combined.

2016 Bottom Line
According to Joe Holka’s Rushing Expectation, Latavius Murray underperformed by 6.9% percent in the run game in regards to his Expected Success Rate. Murray is still the heavy favorite to lead this backfield in carries and it is quite possible that, barring injury, he gets off to a hot start behind against a soft schedule. Rookie DeAndre Washington could force himself into PPR relevance if he can show improvement in pass protection. The situation is great in Oakland for whatever back takes advantage of it.
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