2022 Fantasy Upside
Leonard Fournette defied expectations last season as he emerged as the every down threat for Tampa Bay, ending as RB5 prior to his ankle injury in Week 15. Ronald Jones turned into a non-factor, and the offseason signing of Giovani Bernard didn’t impact Fournette’s receiving stats. In fact, Fournette saw an increased role as a receiver as he finished 69-454-2 on 84 targets, finishing with the 3rd-most receptions of any running back last season. Fournette was dominant all year, averaging 90.4 scrimmage yards while scoring 10 times in 14 games. He was brought back on a three-year deal worth up to $24 million, showing the Bucs believe in him as their star back. Fournette should continue to see the bulk of the work in this high-powered Tom Brady led offense.
2022 Fantasy Downside
Jones is gone, but the Bucs still have 2020 3rd-round pick Ke’Shawn Vaughn, they brought back Bernard, and spent a 3rd-round pick on RB Rachaad White. White shined as a receiving threat in college, catching 43-of-48 targets for 456 yards (5th among college RBs). A lot of Fournette’s success from last season was because he had such an increased role as a receiver, so if White eats into that, then there’s a lot of missed production for Fournette. Fournette also turns 28 at the end of the season, and that’s the age when we start to see running backs decline in production. There were also reports he showed up to camp weighing roughly 260 pounds and coaches were "not happy" about it. That weight increase is significant considering he's listed at 228 pounds.
2022 Bottom Line
While the addition of White is worth keeping an eye on, it’s hard to imagine a rookie taking over too much. Fournette proved himself to be a capable receiver last season, and even did so in Jacksonville with 76 receptions in 2019. Last season people thought Bernard would be the primary receiving back, but that never evolved. Fournette’s role seems mostly safe in this offense and he should top 1,200 scrimmage yards again as long as he stays healthy. He should be viewed as an RB1 with a chance of finishing as a top 10 fantasy back this season.