2022 Fantasy Upside
For a guy many fantasy managers wrote off last year after the Broncos drafted Javonte Williams, Melvin Gordon turned in a solid age-28 season. Gordon saw 231 touches in 2021, most of those coming on the ground (203) with Williams taking over most of the passing game work out of the backfield. Gordon managed a healthy 4.5 yards per carry on that workload with 10 total touchdowns, slotting him safely into the RB2 tier. Gordon re-signing with the Broncos is beneficial from a fantasy standpoint. For starters, Gordon will line up behind Russell Wilson instead of Drew Lock this year, and this fact alone should allow the Broncos to score substantially more points than last season. Second, the Broncos look set on a repeat performance of their "One-Two Punch" approach to RB play, meaning Gordon should again see a healthy workload in 2022 working alongside Williams. Even if Williams continues to ascend at the expense of some of Gordon's workload, this loss could be offset by an increase in scoring and efficiency with Wilson in town. While Gordon might not be an "exciting" pick in the sense that he's a known commodity at this point, his situation sets up well for another season like 2021, which would make him a solid value in the RB3 range of drafts.
2022 Fantasy Downside
While there are reasons to be excited about Gordon this year, he is now 29 and rapidly approaching the age where RBs tend to break down. Gordon did miss two games down the stretch last season with minor injuries, and the odds of additional missed games will only increase with age. Gordon also faces the issue of having an ascending RB talent in the same backfield. Williams looked awesome in the games Gordon missed last season, and it's not out of the realm of possibility for the Broncos to lean on him more heavily in 2022 as the younger and more explosive player. Gordon's role looks secure for now, but NFL backfields are volatile and there is no guarantee he gets the same workload as last year.
2022 Bottom Line
As things currently stand, Gordon looks undervalued as the forgotten man behind Williams, who is being drafted in the early rounds. Gordon appears locked into a healthy amount of carries for the new-look Broncos offense, and he should see at least some passing game work as well. Gordon carries substantial TD upside with Russell Wilson in town, and a Williams injury would lock him into a huge role. Gordon can be drafted as a RB3 with room for more depending on how things shake out during the season.