Fantasy Upside
Mike Evans set a new career-high in 2018 with 1,524 receiving yards. He finished as the No. 8 receiver in fantasy scoring as he survived Tampa Bay’s revolving door at quarterback. Evans was dominant, finishing half his games (8) with 100+ receiving yards. He also had 10 games with 6+ receptions. DeSean Jackson and Adam Humphries are now gone, which should free up some targets for Evans this season. There’s no reason he can’t continue to produce another 1,000-yard season as he has in his first five years.
Fantasy Downside
Evans’ touchdown production has been shaky in his five years as a pro. He scored 12 in his first season, three in his second, 12 in his third, five in his fourth and eight in his fifth. His touchdowns could dip again as Chris Godwin and O.J. Howard emerge as bigger threats in 2019. Also, the Bucs had the fourth-fewest rushing yards in 2018. If Bruce Arians is able to get the running game going in Tampa, it will result in less overall production for the wideouts.
2019 Bottom Line
Evans should be viewed as a fairly safe WR1 in 2019. It will be difficult for him to maintain what he did last season by going over 1,500 yards, but he should still be able to top 1,000 yards. He’s a fairly safe low-end WR1 option who you can get later than most of the other top wideouts. Evans has produced every season since joining the NFL, and there’s no reason why he should see a major dropoff, especially in Arians’ offense.