Fantasy Upside
Noah Fant is entering his illustrious third year in the NFL, and many times, this is the year that a tight end breaks out or the year that we basically write him off as a fantasy prospect. Fant is a very divisive player, you see his talent and you think he’s the next great thing, his measurables are off the charts and if you compare him side by side with any NFL tight end, he measures up very well athletically. As a rookie, he gained the second-most yards after the catch amongst all tight ends, only Kittle had more, and in his second year, he gained the third-most yards after the catch. Going into 2021, fantasy drafters are excited about the prospects of Fant as many Underdog drafters are taking him as the TE9, and in today’s fantasy game, you don’t really have to do much to reward your drafters, usually, a line of 1-9-1 is good for a top 12 week. Fant broke out last year and took full advantage of Courtland Sutton being out for most of the year. He gained 93 targets, good for second on the team, and showed us that he provides us some floor by posting at least eight points in 10 games with Drew Lock at the helm. Remember in 2020, the difference between tight ends 8-16 was only a difference of nine total fantasy points or a touchdown.
Fantasy Downside
Noah Fant's splits last year with Courtland Sutton in the lineup left us with more to be desired. In 2019, the last time they played together, albeit it, Fant was a rookie, but it’s all we have to work with. He saw 108 targets without vs 68 targets with Sutton. He also saw 1.5 fantasy points per game less with Sutton in the lineup, Fant also only had 41 receptions with Sutton versus 71 without Sutton. All of this is to say, that if Sutton comes back and is his normal self, that Fant is most likely to lose most of his shine. Looking at it glass half full, maybe Sutton's returns opens up more of the field for Fant to use his game-breaking speed. Fant scored 126 half PPR points without Sutton in the lineup which would have been good for TE7 0.5 PPR scoring. He’s currently going off the board as TE9 in Underdog drafts and is currently ranked as the TE10 in 4for4 rankings.
2021 Bottom Line
Noah Fant is an exciting young talent who could take the step to the elite of the tight end group, but he’ll have to see more targets or more touchdowns. Since he entered the league he’s seen 159 targets but he’s only scored six times. His 3.8% touchdown rate is the third-lowest amongst all tight ends with at least 150 targets. We still don’t know who the quarterback of the Denver Broncos will be, but that’s why his price is so depressed, take advantage of the next young tight end who looks to break out in his third year in the NFL. With such little risk as an investment, and we’ve seen what his game-breaking speed can offer, the value he offers if he does put it all together Is tantalizing for fantasy drafters in 2021.
