Odell Beckham

Fantasy Upside

Odell Beckham caught 23-of-43 targets for 319 yards (13.9 Y/R) and three touchdowns, adding 72 yards on seven attempts and a touchdown on the ground. He finished as WR36 in half-PPR points per game before his season was cut short at seven games due to a torn ACL. Beckham is reportedly on track to return to the Browns lineup by Week 1 of the 2021 season. As a player with five seasons of 1,000+ yards, this is someone with the track record and upside to return to form. If we look closer at his volume while healthy in 2020, we see that he was being used as a prototypical alpha WR1, ranking in the Top-10 at wide receiver in every meaningful category. From Weeks 1-6, Beckham posted a 25.0% target share (10th), 33.3% red-zone target share (4th), 13.5 average target depth (10th), and 37.71% air-yard share (9th). If the Browns can maintain an increase in passing volume, Beckham has the upside to return to form as a Top-15 wide receiver.

Fantasy Downside

Beckham is coming off a significant knee injury, which makes him a riskier bet at the wide receiver position. There are also several “mouths to feed” in this run-heavy offense, such as Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Jarvis Landry, Austin Hooper, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Rashard Higgins, David Njoku, and Harrison Bryant. This is an offense that is loaded with playmakers, so there's a definite risk that Beckham is not used at such a high rate like he was in the early stages of the 2020 season. Beckham will need to be highly efficient as a downfield threat to return WR2 fantasy value due to his run-heavy offense.

2021 Bottom Line

Beckham is among the most talented wide receivers in the NFL and is still only entering his age-29 season. The Browns' offense should be among the most prolific in the league, so Beckham will have a chance to put up gaudy touchdown totals with his high red-zone usage. Currently being drafted as WR28 (59.0 ADP) in Underdog fantasy leagues, Beckham is a boom-or-bust pick with the ceiling to ascend into the low-end WR1. He’s worth targeting, especially if you selected a high-floor target hog as your WR1.

Week 6 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Odell Beckham's Week 5 had its pros and cons. The pros? Beckham received nine targets, tied for the lead amongst Cleveland receivers. The cons? He was out-targeted by tight end Austin Hooper (10) and out-gained by Jarvis Landry (88 to 58), who also saw nine targets. Beckham's fantasy production has been volatile to this point in the season, and there are no signs of that changing with Cleveland deploying an ultra run-heavy philosophy and spreading the wealth around in the passing game. Hooper has received seven and ten targets in back-to-back games, which is not a good development for Beckham's fantasy prospects, although there is a chance those were nothing more than aberrations as Hooper has mostly been a non-factor to this point in the year. Beckham will be a middling WR2 in a tough divisional matchup with the Steelers this Sunday.

Week 4 at Dallas Cowboys
Week 3 marked another frustrating week for Odell Beckham. The Browns' low-volume passing attack limited him to six targets, which he turned into four receptions for 59 scoreless yards. The Browns' offense plays at a slow pace and favors the run in most situations, heavily utilizing both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt to pound away at opposing defenses. This limits Beckham's upside despite his immense talent. Combining this run-heavy philosophy with Baker Mayfield's erratic play makes Beckham a frustrating fantasy asset, and his outlook does not look like it will substantially improve anytime soon. The Cowboys secondary is struggling with injuries and got demolished in Seattle last week, so Beckham does carry enough upside to start as a low-end WR2, but that is almost solely due to his big-play ability.