2021 Fantasy Upside
Ryan Tannehill's renaissance in Tennessee continued in 2020 when he finished ninth in fantasy points per game (21.8) at the quarterback position with a 33:7 TD:INT ratio and seven rushing touchdowns. Tannehill's calling card was again efficient passing on limited volume. Tannehill finished 18th in pass attempts and 15th in passing yards in 2020, but notched top-ten finishes in yards per attempt (7.9), fantasy points per dropback (0.64), completed air yards (143.8 per game), and passing touchdowns. While the Titans will always be a run-heavy offense with Derrick Henry in the backfield, Tannehill has shown the ability to make the most of his limited attempts by establishing a downfield rapport with A.J. Brown and continuing to demonstrate efficiency throwing touchdowns in the red zone. Now Tannehill gets to add Julio Jones, one of the more efficient receivers of the last decade, to his arsenal. While it will be difficult for Tannehill to maintain his excellent efficiency numbers in the long-term, Jones is the most talented second option the passer has ever had and the Titans could pass at a higher rate this season if their defense continues to struggle. Tannehill fits firmly in the tier of low-end QB1s and is a great option for those who continue to employ the late round QB strategy.
2021 Fantasy Downside
It is highly unlikely Tannehill will rush for another seven touchdowns in 2021, and the levels of passing efficiency he has shown the last two seasons is going to be difficult to maintain for another whole season. If Tannehill sees any slip in his passing efficiency, his fantasy production will surely suffer as he will likely never see massive passing volume on a run-committed team with Henry in the backfield. And while the top of Tennessee's pass-catching depth chart is loaded, an injury to Brown or Jones would result in things looking very shallow in terms of weaponry for Tannehill. While he is definitely draftable in single-QB leagues, Tannehill's profile is more fragile than some of the other passers being drafted in the same range.
2021 Bottom Line
Tannehill projects as a solid low-end QB1 for fantasy managers who do not want to take the plunge early on quarterback. His lack of dynamic dual-threat ability caps his ceiling, but his track record of efficient passing shows he can keep your team in contention at the QB spot with chunk gains and touchdowns. If you stock up at the other positions early in your draft, you could do much worse than snagging Tannehill around the 9th round.
