2022 Fantasy Upside
After a couple strong seasons in Tennessee where he was bolstered by an exceptionally efficient red zone offense, Ryan Tannehill took a step back in 2021. Tannehill posted mediocre finishes in passing yards (16th in the NFL), air yards (18th), yards per attempt (19th), passing touchdowns (16th), and fantasy points per game (14th). The good news for Tannehill is that early reports indicate rookie Malik Willis is no threat to his starting spot under center. Investing in Tannehill for fantasy purposes requires faith that he will return to his 2019-2020 form, when he posted 9.6 and 7.9 yards per attempt respectively, and managed highly efficient touchdown rates of 7.7% and 6.9%. Given that the Titans will again run their offense through Derrick Henry, Tannehill's fantasy production relies intensely on efficiency rather than volume. Tannehill has demonstrated the ability to be a hyper-efficient NFL QB in the past, and a return to those numbers in 2022 would put him back on the fantasy radar as a streaming option in single-QB formats.
2022 Fantasy Downside
There are plenty of reasons to be skeptical of Tannehill for fantasy purposes heading into the 2022 season. To start, Tannehill's exceptional efficiency during 2019 and 2020 is not likely to be repeated this year, as we learned last season. It is exceedingly difficult to sustain the production Tannehill managed on such limited volume. The Titans will always be a run-first team with Mike Vrabel in charge and Derrick Henry in the backfield, meaning Tannehill has virtually no path to increased volume unless the Titans are perpetually trailing. The second reason to be concerned about Tannehill is his supporting cast. Henry is back, but A.J. Brown and Julio Jones are both gone, leaving Tannehill's top receiving options as rookie Treylon Burks and Robert Woods, a 30-year-old veteran coming off an ACL tear. Tannehill will have trouble replicating his passing numbers on deep throws with a diminished group of wideouts in 2022.
2022 Bottom Line
Tannehill has demonstrated the ability to be a useful fantasy QB in the past, but there are a number of concerns for him heading into 2022 that make a QB1 finish unlikely. In the end, Tannehill will likely end up in the tier of middling QB2s and only have consistent relevance in leagues that utilize multiple QBs.