Sony Michel
  • Sony Michel

  • RB
  • ,
  • 29
  • 215 lbs
  • 5' 11"
  • Georgia
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Scouting report

by Andrew Fleischer

NE RB Sony Michel - Week 3 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 3 vs New York Jets
Those counting on Sony Michel to be their RB1 have to be disappointed in the early returns. Michel stands as the RB39, and his expected usage in the passing game simply hasn't come to fruition. The high-scoring New England offense gives Michel legitimate touchdown opportunity, but while he leads Patriots running backs in offensive snap share at 49%, his 0.24 PPR points per snap are nearly half of Burkhead & White's 0.46.

The Patriots play the Jets in Week 3, and despite Vegas giving the Patriots an implied team total of 33 points, this isn't a cake matchup for Michel. The Patriots are potentially without both starting tackles, and while the Jets have allowed an 11th-fewest 106 rushing yards through two games, they've allowed the ninth-most receiving yards to running backs at 115 yards. Michel's lack of involvement in the passing game could equate to more usage of James White and Rex Burkhead. Michel will still get his red zone opportunities, but he'll need to markedly improve his rushing efficiency to rise above RB2 status.

by Andrew Fleischer

NE RB Sony Michel - Week 2 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 2 at Miami Dolphins
Excitement for Sony Michel began building toward the end of the offseason and rose further when he put together some truly impressive preseason runs. Unfortunately, Week 1 was a disappointment that saw Michel finish as the RB70 with only 33% of the Patriots' offensive snaps, while James White and Rex Burkhead saw 47% and 46% respectively. Even if New England's "game plan offense" tendency meant that they wanted to lean on their primary receiving backs due to Pittsburgh's run-stopping strength, it's still a ding on Michel's value given that he was expected to see a larger role as a receiver out of the backfield.

A Week 2 matchup against the Dolphins should eliminate any concern for Michel's season-long outlook. We project Michel as the RB21 against the Dolphins after they allowed a league-high 265 rushing yards to Baltimore in Week 1. New England's implied team total is 31.25 to Miami's 15.75. Recent history tells us to expect the Patriots game plan to include plenty of red zone rushing attempts to establish a lead. If New England pulls ahead significantly in the first half, we should see them lean more heavily on the run in the second half. Projected volume should make Michel a safe fantasy RB2 with potential for RB1 numbers in a lopsided matchup.

by Andrew Fleischer

NE RB Sony Michel - Week 1 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 1 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Sony Michel missed every 2018 preseason game (as well as Week 1 of the regular season) as he recovered from a minor knee procedure, which slowed his early-season progress as well as his implementation as a pass-catching component of the Patriots' offense. The Patriots utilized Michel more heavily over the last six weeks of the 2018 season before he went fully nuclear in the playoffs, amassing 336 yards and six touchdowns in three games.

Michel faces a Steelers defense in Week 1 that allowed the seventh-fewest rushing yards last season, but allowed 12 rushing touchdowns, tied for 12th-most. Pittsburgh also limited receiving yardage to runnings backs to 515 total yards in 2018, fifth-fewest. The matchup makes Michel a fringe RB2 this week, with some touchdown upside given that the Patriots had 2018's seventh-highest red zone rushing percentage.

by Andrew Fleischer

NE RB Sony Michel - 2019 Fantasy Football Outlook

Fantasy Upside
Sony Michel totaled 931 yards rushing in 2018 in only 13 regular-season games, and in Week 12-16, he averaged 11.6 fantasy points per game in .5 PPR leagues, 16th-most among running backs in that timeframe. This is especially notable given his surprisingly near-non-existant use as a receiver. Michel then cranked it up a notch in the playoffs, with 336 yards rushing to go along with six touchdowns.

Fantasy Downside
Sony Michel had a "clean-up" procedure on his knee in August of 2018, missing the pre-season as well as Week 1. He then injured his knee in Week 7, missing the following two games. He had another minor procedure in June of 2019, and is expected to start training camp on the PUP list. New England presumably drafted Damien Harris as a hedge against an in-season injury to Michel, but if Harris maximizes his opportunity in preseason, it's conceivable that he eats into Michel's workload. If Michel misses any time with knee issues, there's at least some risk that Harris claims his starting role.

2019 Bottom Line
Michel could end up as a high-end fantasy RB2 in an ideal scenario in 2019, but our projections are bearish on that outcome, ranking him as the RB36. Even if doesn't miss any time with knee issues, he still faces volume concerns in the Patriots' deep running back group. He's a clear fade with an ADP in the fourth round as the RB21, but if his ADP continues to drop into the sixth round or later in the offseason, he would enter value territory.

by Steve Andress

NE RB Sony Michel - Week 19 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 19 vs. Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers go west to east for the second consecutive week to take on the Patriots in New England with a trip to the AFC Championship game on the line. New England is a shrinking four-point favorite with a middle-of-the-pack implied team total of 25.5 points. The Chargers rank top five in aFPA to QBs, which makes Tom Brady a very risky option in the divisional round. That could mean good news for the ground game, as the Chargers rank 24th in aFPA to RBs. Michel should continue to see volume on the ground but remain a touchdown-or-bust option with James White getting most of the passing game work. That makes White the higher floor option in PPR formats.

by Steve Andress

NE RB Sony Michel - Week 17 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 17 vs. New York Jets

The Patriots should send their starters out for a full 60 minutes this week in an effort to lock up a first-round bye in the playoffs. New England also has an outside chance at home field advantage with a win and Chiefs and Chargers losses. Because of this, New England is among the highest implied team totals this week at 29.25 points after being installed as almost two-touchdown favorites. New York ranks just around league average in aFPA to RBs. Sony Michel has been the undisputed early-down back in this offense, racking up at least 18 touches in four of his last five games. That volume keeps him on the RB2 radar, despite no passing game production, with upside from there when he finds the end zone.

by Steve Andress

NE RB Sony Michel - Week 16 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 16 vs. Buffalo Bills

The Patriots certainly have not looked like the Patriots over the past two weeks, but against the Bills this week, New England still has the third-highest implied team total on the Week 16 slate of 28.75 points. Buffalo ranks third in aFPA to QBs but only 25th in aFPA to RBs. So that's good news for Patriots RBs, but this is still a three-man RBBC with Rex Burkhead back in the mix. That has lowered Sony Michel's weekly floor, and with James Develin possibly poaching goal-line carries, Michel must be viewed as a touchdown-or-bust risk.

Sony Michel news