Fantasy Upside
Steve Smith Sr. was off to another good start to the season last year before tearing his Achilles tendon in November against the Chargers, showing he still had some gas left in the tank at age 36 (now 37). Smith had three games with 10 or more targets last year and finished the season with 670 yards and three touchdowns, a pace that would put him over 1,500 yards if he had kept that up all season. Smith is a fiery competitor who uses his knowledge of the game and his determination to get open, and he is easily the most experienced receiver on the Baltimore roster.
Fantasy Downside
Now 37 years old, Smith would be a prime candidate for retirement, and before the Achilles injury, he had announced intentions to retire after last season. Coming off such a serious injury at his age, it’s hard to imagine him coming back strong this year. There is also youth on the roster, with Kamar Aiken playing admirably in his stead last season, and Chris Moore and Breshad Perriman vying for spots on the depth chart as well. The injury was a double rupture of the Achilles and early reports are the rehab process has been difficult for the veteran, which isn’t a good sign for his fantasy value.
2016 Bottom Line
It’s hard to bet against such a competitive guy, and Smith is worth a late round flyer in most leagues in case he heals up well and can come back. If he can’t make it back, it certainly won’t be for lack of trying, but Smith is too risky coming off an Achilles injury to put a tremendous amount of draft stock into him. His 10-12th round ADP might even be a bit too high.