Fantasy Upside
Todd Gurley was named the Associated Press' 2015 Offensive Rookie of the Year despite starting just 12 games after coming off ACL surgery. He led all rookies in rushing yards (1,106), yards per carry (4.8) and touchdowns (10), while finishing as fantasy's RB5. He did sit out Week 17 with turf toe, but should be 100 percent by the start of the 2016 season. With Case Keenum or rookie Jared Goff set to start under center, Gurley will face plenty of stacked boxes this season, but that didn't deter him a year ago when opponents knew the Rams had to lean on Gurley in order to move the ball offensively. After he was targeted just 26 times as a rookie, look for OC Rob Boras to utilize Gurley more as a receiver, which only boosts his fantasy appeal. He should also see a bump in his overall touches after averaging just under 20 touches per week in 2015.
Fantasy Downside
Gurley rushed for a combined 706 yards in five games last season, which equated to 64 percent of his total production in 2015. Outside of the aforementioned injuries, there are two main concerns with Gurley and they're somewhat related. The first concern is unless Goff is the second-coming of Andrew Luck, opposing defenses will be able to sell out to stop the Rams running game again in 2016. If the one-dimensional Rams fall behind early, they'll be forced to throw to get back into games, which could suppress Gurley's overall production. This exact scenario happened in back-to-back games last season when the Rams fell behind 31-7 to the Bengals in Week 12 and 24-3 to the Cardinals in Week 13. In those two games, Gurley rushed for just 60 yards on a combined 18 carries. If Los Angeles doesn't develop better weapons around Gurley, he could either wear down or break down due to a heavy workload.
2016 Bottom Line
Despite the concerns listed in the "Fantasy Downside" section, Gurley still merits first-round consideration. If the Rams want to be at least somewhat competitive this season, they'll have to feed him consistently on a weekly basis. Gurley's current ADP in both 10 and 12-team leagues is 1.05 and he's even being selected as the No. 1 overall pick, on average, in CBS leagues. While the top overall pick might be a reach, there's no question Gurley should come off the board within the first seven selections of your draft. He has as much fantasy potential as any player in the league.