Tom Brady

AFC Championship vs. Pittsburgh
Brady went 18-38 passing for 287 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions in a 34-16 win against the Texans in the Division Round. Brady was under constant duress last week, but he did finish the regular season with the second highest Total QBR (83.1) and Yards Per Attempt (8.2). Although the Steelers are a middling 12th in pass DVOA and they may not be Houston, they could be a tougher adversary than people realize. Over the past four weeks, Pittsburgh has averaged three sacks, one and a half forced fumbles, one INT and just 1.25 passing TD per game. With Angry Tom narratives still in full effect, it will be interesting to see who shows up this week. The Steelers rank as one of the worst possible matchups in regards to QB aFPA.

Week 17 at Miami
Brady went 17-27 passing for 214 yards with three touchdowns in a 41-3 win against the Jets in Week 16. This week, he is a road favorite against the Dolphins with tied for the largest spread on the slate (-10 points). Brady is second in the NFL in yards per attempt, fourth in fantasy points per drop back and second in Total QBR. He will be a high-end QB1 this week against the Dolphins, who rank as one of the best possible matchups in regards to QB aFPA.

Week 15 at Denver
Brady went 25-of-38 passes for 406 yards and three touchdowns in a 30-23 win against the Ravens in Week 14. This week, he is a road favorite against the Broncos with a slight spread of just three points. Brady has been fairly matchup-independent this year and is second in the NFL in QBR and fantasy points per drop back. He will be a mid-range QB1 this week against the Broncos, who rank as one of the least favorable matchups in regards QB aFPA.