Travis Kelce

Fantasy Upside
Travis Kelce finished as the No. 1 tight end in fantasy last season, just like he did in 2018, 2017 and 2016. He was already one of the most dominant at his position, and then he got Patrick Mahomes as his quarterback. His last two seasons with Mahomes have been the two best of his career, and he’s seen 286 targets in that span. Kelce was incredibly consistent in 2019 as well, finishing with 50+ yards in every game but two. He also had seven or more receptions in nine games.

Fantasy Downside
Kelce had a down year in touchdowns, scoring just five times last season. He had just three total catches from inside the 10 despite having 12 targets (second-highest among all players) in that area, a 25% catch percentage. Kelce also turns 31 this season. We typically see tight ends hit a steep decline once they turn 32 or 33.

2020 Bottom Line
Since the tight end position is so shallow (Jason Witten was the No. 11 TE last season), having an elite option like Kelce is incredibly valuable. We expect him to produce around the same numbers he did last season. We’re also projecting an increase in touchdowns as it seems unlikely Kelce will repeat his poor 25% catching percentage inside the 10 again. He’s getting looks in the red zone, he just didn’t convert them. If he can catch just a few more of those targets, he’ll be in perfect shape.

Week 16 at Chicago Bears

Travis Kelce dominated last week, finishing 11-142 on 13 targets, all team highs. Kelce is seventh among all receivers in yards (1,131) and sixth among all receivers in catches (86). His only downside this season has been his lack of scoring (4 touchdowns), but he's more than made up for that in other areas. He's not only a great option at tight end, but he's one of the best players overall in fantasy this year. He should be viewed as a must-start TE1 against Chicago in Week 16. It's even a good matchup as the Bears have allowed the third-most receptions to tight ends this season.

Week 14 at New England Patriots

Travis Kelce led the Chiefs in receiving last week finishing 5-90 on a team-high nine targets. Kelce has been extremely reliable this season with 80+ receiving yards in half of his games. He hasn't been a huge touchdown threat, but he has scored in three of his last five starts. He does get a tough matchup this week against the Patriots, who have allowed the fourth-fewest receiving yards to tight ends (40.1 ypg), but they aren't exactly shutdown. Just a few weeks ago, Zach Ertz finished 9-94 against New England. Don't get cute in Week 14, trust Kelce as your TE1.