Week 4 vs. Houston Texans
The Colts have a slightly above-average implied team total of 24.25 points, but that number has come down throughout the week with sharp action in Vegas on the Texans, despite the majority of bets being laid on the Colts. The sharps certainly feel there will be some negative game script for the Colts passing game. The Texans are ranked just 25th in aFPA to WRs, but Hilton's efficiency has taken a hit with Luck seeing a significant decline in average depth of target. Hilton's targets can't be disputed (double-digits each week), but he's averaging less than 11 yards per reception. His career low is 13.2, with every other year being over 15 yards. For Week 4, he's feeling more like a PPR-only WR2 play, with a lower floor in standard leagues.