Fantasy Upside
Despite the addition of an extremely talented backfield-mate, Tyler Allgeier continued to produce when given the opportunity last season. Though his YPC (3.7) was much lower than Bijan Robinson's, his yards after contact were practically the same (2.95-to-3.10), and his YPRR (1.79) was one of the best at the position. Allgeier was particularly efficient In short-yardage and "stacked box" situations. Among 47 qualifying running backs who had 30+ carries with eight or more defenders in the box, he had the sixth-highest rate of runs (33.3%) that went for a first down. If Robinson were to miss any time, Allgeier would be a fantastic high-floor/moderate-ceiling fantasy play if given a chance.
Fantasy Downside
With Arthur Smith out of the picture, there's not much reason to believe this isn't going to be a huge majority role for Robinson, with Allgeier on the outside looking in. Allgeier doubled his teammate's goal-line carries (6-to-3) and scored three of his four touchdowns from inside the five last season but is likely to see lower volume in those scenarios as long as Robinson stays healthy. New OC Zac Robinson comes over from the Sean McVay tree, where bellcow roles have historically been more prevalent than in other situations across the league.
2024 Bottom Line
Tyler Allgeier profiles as one of the best handcuff options in the NFL but could be left clogging up a roster spot if Bijan Robinson does what he is projected to do in 2024. If given the chance, he could put up consistent RB2 numbers behind this great offensive line but he only operates as injury insurance with how things stand right now.
