Fantasy Upside
Tyreek Hill’s first season in Miami was a huge success as he set career highs in targets (170), receptions (119) and receiving yards (1,710). He averaged an absurd 100 yards per game, and did it despite Miami having some slight QB injury issues. He was extremely consistent as well, catching at least four passes in all but two games and had 70+ receiving yards in all but six games. Heading into 2023, Hill is once again on pace to have a productive season. There were no major changes to his role, and if anything he could improve on his numbers if QB Tua Tagovailoa is able to play a full season.
Fantasy Downside
Hill had such a strong season in 2022 that it may lead fantasy owners to be slightly disappointed if he doesn’t match that in 2023. Our current projections have him finishing below the marks he set last season in receptions and receiving yards. Hill will enter the upcoming season at 29 years old, and it’s worth noting that since 2000, only eight WRs have hit 20+ PPR points per game at that age. There are also a few external factors to worry about. Hill will need to hope Tagovailoa stays healthy if he wants to maintain that elite production, which is a concern given the QB’s concussion history. Hill also got into an alleged altercation where he was investigated for assault. While no charges were filed, there’s a small chance the NFL steps in with a suspension.
2023 Bottom Line
Hill was one of the best fantasy options at any position last year, and everything is in place for him to have another productive season. Hill has declared he will be the first player in NFL history to get 2,000 receiving yards in a season this season, which is entirely possible when you look at what he did a year ago. While fantasy managers shouldn’t expect 2,000 yards, they should know the ceiling for Hill certainly reaches that realm of production. Hill should be viewed as a top five wide receiver for 2023, and is worthy of a first-round pick.