Fantasy Upside
It's difficult to remember, but at one point in his career, Deshaun Watson was one of the most efficient fantasy quarterbacks on a per-dropback basis. During his final year with the Texans, he scored 369.3 total fantasy points on 656 dropbacks, earning 0.56 FP/dropback. That number would have ranked him as the QB5 in 2023. In that 2020 season, he had good, not great, pass-catching options, highlighted by one of Brandin Cooks' best seasons, Will Fuller, Jordan Akins, and a past-his-prime David Johnson. The 2024 Cleveland Browns have a better infrastructure than that, which could equate to a career-resurgent year for Watson.
Fantasy Downside
The 2020 season was a long time ago. The four years since then have been marred by injuries, off-the-field issues, and poor play when Watson has actually been able to see the field. In 11 starts with the Browns over the last two seasons, he has averaged 6.5 yards per attempt and has a 73.1 adjusted completion percentage, marks that both would have ranked 30th among his peers in 2023 alone. That's his downside: a below-replacement-level NFL quarterback.
2024 Bottom Line
A bounce-back season is certainly in the range of outcomes for Deshaun Watson, but it's almost impossible to know if that's going to equate to anything more than a mid-line QB2 in fantasy football. The best tact for betting on a good season out of Watson is to take the skill positions in Cleveland (Amari Cooper, David Njoku, etc.) and reap the benefit that way. The veteran quarterback will be on the streaming radar should he go undrafted.
