Fantasy Upside
Coming off an impressive rookie season where he accumulated over 1,200 total yards and finished as a fantasy RB2 in terms of points per game, Javonte Williams suffered an abrupt and brutal end to his sophomore season when he tore his ACL, MCL, and LCL in Week 4 of the 2022 season. To that point in the year, Williams was on pace for another solid season working as part of a committee and managed to catch 16 balls in his extremely limited action. It's difficult to extract much from Williams' stats last year given the small sample, but he has played enough in the NFL for us to know that he is an elusive runner who is also a more-than-capable pass catcher out of the backfield. Williams' recovery is one of the biggest injury storylines in fantasy coming into the season, but we did get great news to lead off training camp when he avoided being placed on the PUP list and he has been participating in practice like normal so far. If Williams is anything close to 100% heading into Week 1, he will have a very interesting role as the clear top talent in the Denver backfield.
Fantasy Downside
The injury Williams suffered last season should not be underestimated. There is a large body of data suggesting that players returning from multiple-ligament tears do not return to their true form until being two years removed from the injury. Williams will not even be one whole calendar year removed from his injury for Week 1, which is a big reason why many were surprised when he managed to avoid the PUP list to start training camp. Williams is a talented player, but drafting him comes with major question marks regarding the stability of his knee and his workload early in the season. The Broncos signed Samaje Perine to work alongside Williams in the passing game, and he will likely claim significant snaps and targets in Sean Payton's new offense. A healthy Williams should be the lead back for the Broncos, but that is far from guaranteed given last season's injury.
2023 Bottom Line
Williams is one of the more polarizing players for fantasy drafters heading into the 2023 season and has a huge range of potential outcomes this year. He has the talent and potential role to vastly outperform his ADP, but he also could become nothing more than a weekly headache for those managers who choose to rely on him as a weekly starter. For drafts, he is best thought of as a high-risk, high-reward RB3.