Fantasy Upside
Javonte Williams comes into the NFL with a whole lot of talent and potential in the Denver Broncos offense. Here are some of his eye-popping college numbers. He was first in missed tackle rate at 0.48 (1st in NCAA), only Jonathan Taylor graded out higher in RB grades in for Pro Football Focus, he was PFF ACC player of the year, PFF 1st Team All American RB and he did all this at 20 years old, the youngest RB drafted in the 2021 NFL draft. All of this has many fantasy drafters jumping the gun and taking him as the RB23 in Underdog Drafts. A year after the Broncos had the eighth highest run to pass ratio with a run/pass split of 47%/53%, many are assuming Williams comes in from day one and takes most of the touches that Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsey shared last year. He also increased his targets year over year each year at North Carolina. In 2018, he saw 11 targets, in 2019 he saw 17 targets, and in his final year, he saw 25 targets. Showing us he can be a three-down back at the next level in the NFL. Last year Phillip Lindsey touched the ball 132 times. (118 rushes and 14 targets) Those touches seem up for grab for Williams to siphon away from Melvin Gordon.
Fantasy Downside
The good news is that Williams was drafted in the second round, which is usually a good indication that your NFL team will give you a lot of work out of the gate. The bad news is that Williams will have to share work with incumbent starter Melvin Gordon. A year after having the 11th most touches of all RBs, Melvin Gordon sees himself as a starter again, but for how long is the answer that will dictate how valuable Javonte Williams really is in the NFL. We could see a timeshare like we saw last year with Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsey, where Gordon handled about 53% of the team's rush attempts while Lindsey handled 38% of the team's rush attempts, and if Williams doesn’t pick up things quickly, it could quickly favor Gordon 60/40 when it comes to the timeshare.
2021 Bottom Line
