Scott Smith’s Best Bets for UFC Paris: Gane vs Spivac

Sep 01, 2023

Craig Kidwell-USA TODAY Sports

UFC Paris is shaping up to be one of the more difficult cards to bet in quite some time. A number of newcomers combined with some very wide lines and late matchup changes leaves minimal spots to be with confidence. Even the main event could possibly stack up as a land mine to avoid. Ciryl Gane takes on Sergei Spivak in the headliner in Paris. Gane, while uber-athletic for a heavyweight, has been severely untested on the ground to this point in his career. Spivak, meanwhile, excels on the ground, making this another spot to proceed with caution.

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UFC Paris Best Bets

Parlay of the Week - Farid Basharat to win + Oezdemir/Guskov under 2.5 rounds (-164, FanDuel)

Fight Breakdown: Farid Basharat vs. Kleydson Rodrigues

Kleydson Rodrigues is coming off of two straight misses on the scale that has forced him up to bantamweight. Rodrigues has diverse striking with power in his hands. He can be reckless at times with his striking, and that will often lead to his hands dipping low and punches landing wide. That lack of discipline may lead to trouble against a fighter the caliber of Basharat. On the ground, Rodrigues is a solid fighter that is positionally sound. His biggest issue is that his takedown defense needs work, and he can often be controlled on the ground due to being too comfortable fighting from his back. His flaws will be problems for a fighter as disciplined as Basharat.

Farid Basharat is one of the better up-and-coming prospects at bantamweight. He is technically well-rounded in all phases of the fight game. His boxing is technical but lacking knockout power. Rodrigues will definitely be the bigger puncher in this matchup, and Basharat will have to be technically sound in the striking exchanges. Basharat will have the advantage in the wrestling department and should be able to dictate where the fight takes place. This line is a bit wide and will be closer than what bookmakers have it. While Rodrigues may be the more dangerous fighter, Basharat is the more disciplined technical fighter, and that should lead him to a decision victory

Fight Breakdown: Volkan Oezdemir vs Bogdan Guskov

Bogdan Guskov is a powerful striker who comes forward with wild pressure right out of the gate. If you watch any film, you can see that the finishing ability is evident. Many of his fights don’t make it out of the first round. Many of his fights seem to also be against taxi drivers and janitors. It’s hard to say how this will transition into the UFC against a high-quality opponent in Oezdemir, that only loses to the top of the division.

Oezdemir has a middling record in the UFC. His losses, however, have all come at the hands of champions or contenders. Oezdemir has power in his hands with solid takedown defense and the ability to press fighters against the fence. Oezdemir will be the veteran and more technically sound fighter in this matchup. Oezdemir is at his best when he stays composed and is able to counter-strike over-aggressive opponents. That is exactly what he will have in Guskov. I expect Oezdemir to win this fight. This fight projects to finish inside the distance 84% of the time, and targeting this line at under 2.5 rounds makes sense here.

Risk: 1 unit on FanDuel to win .61 unit (Playable down to -175)

Prop of the Week

Ciryl Gane wins by (T)KO (-105, DraftKings)

Fight Breakdown: Ciryl Gane vs. Sergei Spivak

This fight is a typical striker versus grappler. We know who both of these fighters are and what they will bring to the table. Spivak has shown that he has solid takedowns off of the clinch and is able to end fights with submissions from top control. His striking is slightly above average, and he does have power in his hands. This fight comes down to whether Spivak can get Gane to the ground. If he does, I have little doubt that Spivak can get a submission finish with an arm triangle should the fight get there. The issue is that Spivak will have to get in deep against a more athletic striker. His fight against Tom Aspinall showed that Spivak has some tells when he is looking to shoot. His wrestling shots leave a lot to be desired. Gane was taken down by and controlled against Ngannou and demolished by Jon Jones. Both fighters are more of a threat on the feet than Spivak.

Gane will be the superior athlete and striker in this match-up. The advantage here will make it difficult for Spivak to get in deep on the hips for his traditional clinch takedowns. Gane should be able to maintain distance with his striking enough to manage any traditional shots from. I think Gane’s athleticism will cause problems here for Spivak. The fight with Aspinall showed how Spivak can have difficulty taking down more athletic fighters. While I think Aspinall is a more talented fighter than Gane, I think Gane is able to keep this fight on the feet long enough to land the shots needed to end this fight.

Risk: 1.05 units on DraftKings to win 1 unit.

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