Scott Smith’s Top Plays for UFC 313: Pereira vs Ankalaev

UFC 313, set for March 8, 2025, at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, promises an electrifying night of fights with intriguing betting opportunities headlined by a light heavyweight title clash between champion Alex Pereira and challenger Magomed Ankalaev. As Pereira aims to extend his dominance with a fifth straight title defense, Ankalaev enters as a near-even-money underdog, boasting a wrestling edge that could disrupt the champ’s striking prowess. The card deepens with a co-main event rematch featuring Justin Gaethje against Rafael Fiziev, where Gaethje’s short-notice underdog status could set up a potential value play. From tight moneyline odds to prop bet possibilities like Pereira’s KO potential or Ankalaev’s decision path, UFC 313 offers a dynamic betting landscape for sharp and casual bettors alike.

Best Bets for UFC 313: Pereira vs Ankalaev

Alex Periera to win (-110, Caesars)

Fight Breakdown: Alex Pereira vs Magomed Ankalaev

Most bookmakers have this fight listed as a pick 'em, indicating how closely analysts view the matchup. Ankalaev is favored in some circles due to his edge in wrestling and grappling. However, despite his technical skill, Ankalaev’s offensive wrestling has only been successful 31% of the time in the UFC. In contrast, Pereira has only been taken down three times in ten fights, resulting in nearly four minutes of control time. The only fighter to consistently take Pereira down was Jan Blachowicz; every other opponent has failed to gain any significant control time, forcing them to deal with Pereira's striking for most of the bout.

This is likely how the fight will play out. I expect Ankalaev to prioritize takedowns early, and if he does bring the fight to the ground, I doubt Pereira can rely on merely holding on in hopes of ending the round or getting a standing reset from the referee. Ankalaev poses a genuine threat if the fight goes to the ground.

On the feet, Pereira has significant advantages, both statistically and technically. Ankalaev has shown difficulties defending against leg kicks, while Pereira effectively uses calf kicks to set up his powerful left hook. Our model and simulations favor Pereira to defend his title for the fifth consecutive time, and I share that perspective. Getting the champion at this price presents good value, and I believe he will secure a finish.

Risk: 1.1 units on Caesars to win 1 unit.

Justin Gaethje to win (+138, FanDual)

Fight Breakdown: Justin Gaethje vs Rafael Fiziev

The last memory of Justin Gaethje is him being faceplanted by Max Holloway in one of the most thrilling moments in MMA history. That recency bias has seemingly outweighed Fiziev's recent losing streak and injury layoff. That’s without mentioning that Gaethje already has a win over Fiziev, and this fight is on short notice for Fiziev. While I think Fiziev is prepared for this fight. The number of red flags that this number presents makes Gaethje a huge value. Gaethje has commented recently about the damage that he has taken, which makes me think that he will contemplate wrestling more than we have seen him do in the past. Our model projects Gaethje to win, and we would be comfortable making a play on him if the odds were flipped. We like Gaethje to win a competitive fight that we think makes it to the judges.

Risk: 1 unit on FanDual to win 1.38 units.

DFS Cash Game Plays For UFC 313: Pereira vs Ankalaev

Our strategy for MMA DFS cash games revolves around creating lineups that are projected to get at least four wins on fight night. Targeting fighters in 5-round fights give us more scoring upside, and both fighters are usually featured in our lineups. Scoring favors grappling heavy fighters with takedowns and control time being heavily targeted in our lineup construction. Finish rate and stylistic matchups are other considerations when searching for a winning combination on fight night.

Premium Plays ($9000 and Above)

Carlos Leal $9600 - Leal is the biggest favorite on the card this week, and he also sports our highest projection on the week. Leal looks to bounce back from a horrible decision in his last fight against the slumping Alex Morono. Leal will be a threat to finish this fight as he will be the more dangerous and powerful striker. While Morono certainly makes the most of his talent, it will be difficult for him to keep up with the physicality of Leal.

Mauricio Ruffy $9400 - Ruffy has a 91% finish rate in his wins. He gets crafty veteran Bobby Green this week as he attempts to maintain his surging momentum in the UFC. Ruffy offers some of the highest upside on the card, but he will certainly need a finish to pay off at this price. That could be tricky against the head movement and unorthodox style of Green.

Curtis Blaydes $9100 - The knock on Blaydes is his chin and his ability to deal with power. While Rizvan Kuniev has power, he likely doesn’t have the athleticism or movement to deal with the wrestling of Blaydes. Blaydes should have the ability to parlay his takedowns into a finish this week against a UFC debutant. From a matchmaking standpoint, this fight doesn’t make much sense, as Blaydes projects to be levels above Kuniev from a skill standpoint.

Midrange Plays ($8000 - $8900)

Djorden Santos $8700 - Santos projects well in our model, but there are some red flags that should be taken into account. First, it is obvious that Santos is a debuting fighter, so he hasn’t proven himself at this level yet. Secondly, his resume is soft, and his finishes have come to fighters with losing records, the last coming in 2021. When he fights decent competition, he often fights to a decision. Ozzy Diaz will have a 4-inch height and reach advantage as well. Our model projects Santos with the third-highest projection and a win probability of 63% this week. Santos should remain in consideration as a pivot to some of the premium plays, but beware of the holes in his profile this week.

Alex Pereira $8300 - Pereira, for all of his knockouts and 5-round fights, doesn’t typically score well in DFS. He has averaged 87.88 DFS points in his UFC career. The issue is that Pereira is measured in his approach and often sets traps with his striking. While it does lead to finishes, his output is usually low, with no upside in the grappling department. This wee,k he needs to be in consideration due to it being a 5-round fight and also because of the discount in salary. While stacking the main event is still viable, it’s not mandatory this week, as I expect one of these fighters to get finished. You may only be looking at 150-point upside with the stack.

Ignacio Bahamondes $8200 - Another competitively lined fight happens at lightweight between two giants of the division. Both fighters are 6’ 3”, which usually leads to a reach advantage. That advantage will be on the side of Turner in this fight. Jalin Turner has lost three of his last four fights. While both of these fighters project similarly, we like the output and durability of Bahamondes in this spot.

Value Plays ($7900 and Below)

Magomed Ankalaev $7900 - Ankalaev finds himself among value plays this week against Alex Pereira. While we project Pereira to win, Anklaev has a legitimate path to victory should he get the fight to the ground. Ankalaev has vicious ground and pound, and that could force Pereira to make a bad decision on the ground that leads him to getting dethroned. For Ankalaev, should he win the fight, he will likely score well on the back of his grappling with a possible finish as well. He can be played alone as a value play or in tandem with Pereira.

Justin Gaethje $7800 - I like Gaethje a lot this week. The lasting memory everyone has is the faceplant KO at the hands of Max Holloway. If one more second had passed, the recency bias wouldn’t be this out of control. Gaethje has already beaten Fiziev, who is taking this fight on short notice after coming off a nearly two-year layoff due to injury. I think the line and salaries should be flipped, and I think there is a solid chance we'll see Gaethje use his wrestling more than he has in the past.

Amanda Lemos $7700 - Lemos will be the toughest test to date for the young prospect Iasmine Lucindo. This is a big step up in competition, and it may be a bit too much too soon. Lucindo has struggled with lesser fighters, and Lemos will be tough to deal with. We expect this fight to get to the judge,s and Lemos should have enough output and have a safe enough floor to return value while having the upside to win this fight.

Brunno Ferreira $7600 - Ferreira’s finishing upside makes him a solid upside value play this week. Armen Petrosyan does not project to grapple, which means the majority of this fight should take place on the feet, where one of these guys should get knocked out. Our model interestingly projects Petrosyan as the higher scorer while projecting Ferreira as the higher win probability. Ferreira offers boom or bust potential at a decent price. Should he get the finish, he will likely find himself in the optimal lineup this week.

Cash Game Lineup:

Carlos Leal $9600

Djorden Santos $8700

Alex Pereira $8300

Jalin Turner $8000

Justin Gaethje $7800

Brunno Ferreira $7600

Projections for UFC 313: Pereira vs Ankalaev

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