Week 5 at Indianapolis Colts
DeAndre Hopkins had another slow game in Week 4 when he saw six targets and caught four of them for 63 scoreless yards. Hopkins has a 29% target share through four games in Tennessee. That looks good on paper, but Hopkins and the passing offense in general have not been very efficient. Hopkins' 2.14 yards per route run is middling, and his 7.0 yards per target ranks 63rd amongst wideouts. Hopkins is seeing as much volume as could reasonably be expected in the Tennessee offense, but he is not making big plays or finding the end zone with enough regularity to be an exciting fantasy option. The Colts present a good matchup for Hopkins and the Titans, but he can't be considered anything more than an unexciting flex option in PPR formats given his performance so far in 2023.
Week 4 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
DeAndre Hopkins has a robust 30% target share from Ryan Tannehill through three games, but the Titans' offense has been so inefficient that he has yet to log anything better than a WR26 finish on the week (which was in Week 1 before he suffered an ankle injury). Hopkins should be nearing full health now, but it looks like he is going to have to rely almost entirely on volume to return useable fantasy results unless Ryan Tannehill and the offense see dramatic improvement. Hopkins gets the Bengals this week, who have been about average in terms of allowing fantasy production to opposing receivers through three games. Hopkins can be started as a flex in PPR leagues, but he has very limited upside given his current offensive environment.
Week 3 at Cleveland Browns
DeAndre Hopkins did not practice last week but ended up playing in Week 2 against the Chargers, although his ankle issue clearly limited him as he only played 57% of the Titans' offensive snaps. Hopkins' limited workload led to a disappointing fantasy day, but he still saw 13 targets in Week 1 and should be closer to full health this week against the Browns in Cleveland. The matchup against Cleveland is a difficult one as the Browns have a good pass rush and have been tough on opposing passing games so far this season. The Titans will likely lean heavily on Derrick Henry and the rushing attack this week as the Browns have been more vulnerable on the ground, but Hopkins should still see enough opportunity to make for a reasonable flex play in Week 3.
Week 2 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The lone fantasy bright spot for the Titans in Week 1 was DeAndre Hopkins attracting 13 targets, good for a 39% share from Ryan Tannehill. Even with that much opportunity, Hopkins only managed 65 scoreless yards with Tannehill struggling to complete passes on a regular basis. Hopkins looks like the clear alpha target in Tennessee and that should work fine as a flex option for PPR leagues, but Hopkins will need Tannehill to improve his play over the next few weeks to reach any kind of ceiling outcome. Hopkins gets a Chargers defense this week that was torched for 200+ yards by Tyreek Hill this past Sunday. He is a volume-based flex play for now, and gets a slight boost in full PPR leagues.
Week 1 at New Orleans Saints
DeAndre Hopkins will make his Titans debut on Sunday when Tennessee travels to New Orleans to take on the Saints in the Superdome. Hopkins had a condensed season last year due to his six-game PED suspension, but when he returned to the field he impressed by instantly commanding an elite target share and managing to produce some big weeks with brutal quarterback play. Now Hopkins will presumably slot in as Ryan Tannehill's top option in the passing game, although the Titans will surely deploy yet another run-heavy offense anchored by Derrick Henry. Hopkins showed he can still separate last year, and he is by far the most proven NFL pass catcher on the Titans. He will compete with second-year wideout Treylon Burks and the efficient Chigoziem Okonkwo for targets, but for now Hopkins projects to lead that group in terms of target share and therefore can be used as a flex option this Sunday against the Saints.
Fantasy Upside
Released by the Arizona Cardinals in May, DeAndre Hopkins now lands in Tennessee where he will immediately assume the top pass catching role in front of former first-round pick Treylon Burks. After a highly disappointing 2021 season, Hopkins bounced back in a big way last year in the nine games he appeared in. Hopkins saw 96 targets over those nine games, and managed to post 717 yards and three touchdowns with below average QB play. After Hopkins returned from his suspension, he saw a 29.4% target share, which placed him fourth in the entire NFL amongst WRs. Now Hopkins will transition to catching passes from veteran Ryan Tannehill, who has historically thrived on limited volume by throwing downfield off play action due to the threat of Derrick Henry in the Titans' backfield. The Titans' offense will once again revolve around Henry this year, but the overall passing game should bounce back from last year's disaster and Hopkins will be a big part of that. While he is no longer an elite WR option, Hopkins still has plenty of juice left to be a factor for fantasy managers.
Fantasy Downside
The downside for Hopkins stems from both his age and the Titans' usual offensive philosophy. First off, Hopkins just turned 31 and is undoubtedly past his prime years at this point. This is especially noticeable after the catch, where Hopkins only managed 1.7 YAC per target last year, good for 62nd at his position. While Hopkins would appear to be the top receiving option for Tannehill heading into training camp, it would not be shocking to see Burks take another step forward this year and sap some targets from Hopkins in his second pro season. Second, there will never be an abundance of targets to distribute in Tennessee so long as they lean on Derrick Henry's rushing abilities as often as possible. The Titans once again project to be amongst the most run-heavy offenses in the league, meaning any hit to Hopkins' target share would threaten his fantasy projections significantly.
2023 Bottom Line
Hopkins is no longer a top-tier fantasy wideout, but last year showed that he still has enough explosiveness left to produce some big games. The move to Tennessee may not look ideal on paper, but Hopkins should feature prominently in the passing game for as long as he's healthy and on the field. The 2023 version of DeAndre Hopkins is no WR1, but he makes sense as a WR2 or flex option.
Week 17 at Atlanta Falcons
DeAndre Hopkins ended fantasy seasons with only one catch and four yards last week. However, Colt McCoy is back under center and Hopkins still had 10 targets, so there’s reason to expect a bounce-back game.
This week, Hopkins has a nice matchup against the Falcons, who rank 20th in aFPA to opposing wide receivers. Look for better numbers and better quality targets and a return to WR1 territory for fantasy managers. Start him, despite last week’s debacle.
Update: It's a little concerning that David Blough will be quarterback instead of Colt McCoy, but ultimately, we think Hopkins will still get enough looks to warrant fringe-WR2 status. There is definitely added risk, however, and fantasy managers with a steadier option may want to look elsewhere.
Update: With Hopkins out make sure that you get him out of lineups. Hollywood Brown becomes a little bit of a better play.
Week 16 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Despite issues at the quarterback position, DeAndre Hopkins caught a respectable seven balls for 60 yards in a tough matchup against the Broncos last week. It was good to see Hopkins get 11 targets once again with the combination of Trace McSorley and Colt McCoy behind center, perhaps easing the minds of fantasy managers wondering what to do with Hopkins now that McSorley is expected to start Week 16.
Hopkins has a nice matchup this week against Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers rank 25th in aFPA to opposing wide receivers and seem to be limping toward the finish line. Hopkins is downgraded to high-end WR2 status because of the quarterback situation, but he should still be in lineups. He’s too good and too much of a target hog to ignore.
Week 15 at Denver Broncos
DeAndre Hopkins had to deal with a difficult New England defense and a devastating injury to Kyler Murray on Monday night, but he still managed seven catches for 79 yards. He was also targeted 11 times, a great sign for the remainder of the season with Colt McCoy under center. Hopkins definitely takes a hit with Murray out, but he remains one of the most talented players in the league at his position.
This week, Hopkins has another tough matchup against the Broncos. Denver ranks ninth in aFPA to opposing wide receivers, although they allowed nine catches and a touchdown to JuJu Smith-Schuster a week ago. Hopkins is a must-start regardless of matchup, but with the downgrade at quarterback and the difficult opponent, we have him ranked as a low-end WR2 instead of the sure-fire WR1 status we’re accustomed to.
Week 14 vs. New England Patriots
DeAndre Hopkins caught four of his six targets against the Chargers before the bye last week, gaining 87 yards and a touchdown. Hopkins has double-digit half-PPR points in every game he’s played this season and he has three touchdowns in just six games. While it’s slightly concerning that Marquise Brown led the team in targets in his first game with Hopkins in the lineup, fantasy managers should still count on Hopkins as a reliable producer.
This week, Hopkins faces a Patriots defense that ranks 12th in aFPA to opposing wide receivers. It’s a tough matchup for Hopkins, but his target share should still make him a viable WR1 option in all fantasy leagues. The addition of Brown to the lineup at least keeps Bill Belichick from focusing all of his defensive attention on one target.
