Daily Fantasy Playbook: Wide Receiver Strategy

The NFL is a passing league, and daily fantasy football is no different. Most sites require three wide receivers and award a full point per reception, so picking the correct receivers is vital to your success. Wideouts are drawn from the largest player pool, usually occupy the most lineup slots, and have the most weekly variance; but there's no need to be intimidated. An edge can be had if you can consistently nail your wide receiver selections. Let’s get to work.

Wide Receiver Salary Allocation

Wide Receiver is a highly volatile fantasy position where the studs have the highest ceilings but also the lowest floors. The position's volatility dictates saving cap space at wide reciver in cash games (head to heads, 50/50 leagues), where maximizing your lineup's floor is the priority. In tournaments, it makes sense to pay up for the high ceiling that only a stud wideout such as Calvin Johnson can provide.

To get a better idea of how the volatility at wide receiver compares to other positions, let’s take a look at the coefficient of variation (CV, standard deviation divided by mean) in weekly fantasy points per game of the top five players at each position:

• Forte: 21.3 - (0.42 * 21.3) = 12.4 (Actual season-low: 8.9)
• Johnson: 21.8 - (0.65 * 21.8) = 7.6 (Actual season-low: 5.5)

Because Johnson loses 65 percent of his mean compared to only a 42 percent loss for Forte, he makes for a much riskier play. We do not want to take on unnecessary risk in cash games, so finding relatively lower priced values at the wide receiver position is crucial to daily fantasy success.

Where there is great risk, there’s usually great reward. Let's now suppose we’re entering a tournament and check out what the two players’ ceilings would look like:

• Forte: 21.3 + (0.42 * 21.3) = 30.2 (Actual season-high: 37.7)
• Johnson: 21.8 + (0.65 * 21.8) = 36.0 (Actual season-high: 52.9)

To paint an even clearer picture of wide receiver upside versus running back upside, let’s look at a table of the top ten fantasy games from running backs and wide receivers in 2013 (one point PPR scoring):

What Statistics Are Most Relevant When Analyzing Wide Receivers?

The table below shows how various statistics correlate to wide receiver fantasy points per game using two different scoring systems: 0.5 PPR and 1.0 PPR.

A quick refresher on correlation: The scale is -1 to 1. Positive values indicate variables move in the same direction, while negative values indicate variables move in opposite directions. An absolute value of 1 means perfect correlation. Absolute values above 0.7 are considered strong, those between 0.3 and 0.7 are moderate, and those under 0.3 are weak.

Targets Are Essential

Targets should be the foundation by which wide receivers in daily fantasy are chosen, especially in cash games. Unlike quarterbacks or running backs, wide receivers get the least amount of opportunities to produce fantasy points. The league leader in targets received only 182, which pales in comparison to the league-leading amount of passing attempts (659) or running back touches (366).

The first thing to do when assessing the wide receiver position every week is to see if anyone is undervalued on the basis of targets alone. We need our wideouts to put up good yardage totals; as targets increase, so does yardage potential. 

What is a good target benchmark? The top 10 wide receivers in terms of fantasy points per game in 2013 averaged 9.69 targets. Only five receivers inside the top 25 had less than eight, while only two finished outside the top 25 with more than eight. Therefore, approximately eight targets is a solid benchmark.

The importance of targets is reinforced by the moderate-to-strong correlations between wide receivers’ fantasy points per game and their percentage of workload statistics. The primary option even in a poor offense still has a decent shot at producing good numbers in certain matchups and should never be ruled out.

Since player salaries are generally based on past production, they tend to fluctuate due to recent outliers. If a frequently targeted wide receiver has performed poorly recently, his salary may be artificially depressed. Conversely, an infrequently targeted wide receiver may have his salary artificially inflated if he is coming off recent strong performances. Both of these scenarios tend to happen often during the season because wide receivers have such high volatility; be sure to take advantage.

The Effects of the Opposition’s Pass Coverage

Shutdown cornerbacks like Richard Sherman, Darrelle Revis, and Patrick Peterson are capable of ruining fantasy days for opposing wideouts. Shutdown corners not only make it difficult to get open; sometimes their reputation alone can discourage a quarterback from even looking the shutdown corner's way during a passing play. Sherman, Revis, and Peterson all got targeted at least 28 percent less than the league average on a per snap basis in 2013. Shutdown corners will more often than not defend the opposition’s best receiver, whose value then takes a significant hit.

Teams generally heavily target cornerbacks who start opposite of a shutdown cornerback, which can lead to an uptick in opportunities for that team's second wide receiver. Consider that on a per-snap basis, Jerraud Powers got targeted 40 percent more than Peterson; Johnthan Banks got targeted 29 percent more than Revis; and Buster Skrine got targeted 21 percent more than Joe Haden.

The best way for a wide receiver to neutralize a difficult matchup versus a cornerback is to be adept at moving around the offensive formation to avoid some of the corner’s coverage. Receivers who can line up anywhere on the field--including the slot--are much harder to completely neutralize. Some outside wide receivers who also play a significant amount of slot snaps include Larry Fitzgerald, Brandon Marshall, T.Y.Hilton and Marques Colston. On the other hand, Mike Wallace, Torrey Smith and Dez Bryant rarely ever line up inside. Keep where a receiver can line up in mind when assessing receivers' floors for cash game lineups.

Some teams have the misfortune of starting a second cornerback who is significantly inferior to their number one corner, or is perceived as such. Either way, opposing offenses tend to attack these weak links whether they are real or perceived. For example, rookie Dee Milliner was targeted a whopping 60 percent more on a per-snap basis than Antonio Cromartie last season, which helped Brian Hartline draw 15 targets and pile up 9 receptions for 127 yards and a TD in week 13 against the Jets. If a team’s number one wideout can line up all over the field, he will also be able to take advantage of the opposition's weakest corners.

Throughout the season, many teams will suffer injuries that will force them to give poor cornerbacks a significant amount of snaps. Pay special attention when the aforementioned instances arise; they can provide hidden value that would not otherwise be made apparent simply by looking at a defense’s fantasy points allowed to wide receivers.

The opposing pass rush can also have an effect on wide receivers. A receiver who runs deeper routes may have trouble against a defense with a strong pass rush, as that receiver's quarterback likely won't have the necessary time to let those routes fully develop. Conversely, a receiver who runs shorter routes may be the recipient of quicker, blitz beating passes near the line of scrimmage. The opposites would apply in the case of a weak opposing pass rush. 

One thing that I like to do when analyzing matchups each week is to put myself in the shoes of each coordinator. I attempt to decipher what I think the most likely offensive and defensive game plans relating to a particular receiver will be. Coaches watch a ton of tape of an opponent’s recent games and make tactical adjustments accordingly. To be a great daily fantasy player, you must anticipate what adjustments will be made on both sides of the ball. Then, consider how a player's production will be impacted based on the adjustments you anticipate.

The Effect of Size on Wide Receiver Production

How a defensive secondary matches up to wide receivers in terms of size can often play a large role in determining how heavily targeted a wide receiver will be and how well he will perform.

To illustrate the effects of size on wide receiver production, let’s turn our attention to the Titans, who last year finished first in schedule adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. 

Lacking in size, Tennessee cornerbacks Alterraun Verner (5 foot 10 inches, 189 pounds) and Jason McCourty (5'11", 188) shut down smaller wide receivers all season, but struggled against bigger receivers. First, let's take a look at some of the stat lines (Targets-Receptions-Yards-TDs) the Titans allowed to smaller receivers:

• Week 1: Antonio Brown (5’10”, 186): 7-5-71-0

• Week 4: Santonio Holmes (5’11”, 192): 5-1-25-0

• Week 6: Golden Tate (5’10”, 202): 7-5-33-0

• Week 9: Chris Givens (6’0”, 203): 8-4-55-0

• Week 10: Cecil Shorts (6’0”, 202): 4-2-42-0

• Week 11: T.Y. Hilton (5’9”, 183): 9-5-44-0

• Week 13: T.Y. Hilton (5’9”, 183): 7-5-46-0

Now look at what went down against some of the larger wide receivers the Titans faced:

• Week 2: DeAndre Hopkins (6’1”, 218): 13-7-117-1

• Week 2: Andre Johnson (6’3”, 230): 13-8-76-0

• Week 14: Eric Decker: (6’4”, 230): 12-8-117-1

• Week 14: Demaryius Thomas (6’3”, 229): 10-7-88-1

• Week 15: Larry Fitzgerald (6’3”, 218): 9-6-49-0

• Week 17: Andre Johnson (6’3”, 230): 9-6-49-0

The difference between the Titans' effectiveness at defending smaller wide receivers versus larger ones was night and day. Even though Johnson and Fitzgerald didn’t light it up in weeks 15 and 17, respectively, they both drew a strong nine targets, which is what we’re looking for in terms of opportunity for a daily fantasy receiver.

Now is a good time to point out that bigger wide receivers are generally superior options, period. The average size of the top 10 receivers in terms of fantasy points per game last season was 6 foot 2 inches, 216 pounds. Weight has a moderate correlation to fantasy points per game, and height has a low-to-moderate correlation. If there is a big receiver being offered at a decent price, give him strong consideration, especially if he’s facing a much smaller secondary.

New rules that aim to crack down on illegal contact could greatly benefit all wide receivers in 2014, but especially wideouts with good size. If defenders aren't allowed to get away with nudges and holds when trying to defend receivers of greater stature, large wideouts may become even more dominant.

Yards After Catch & Consistency

Returning to the correlations shown in the table above, yards after catch (YAC) has a strong correlation to fantasy points per game and is very useful in analyzing consistency. Wide receivers who had a lot of YAC per game, such as Antonio Brown, Pierre Garcon, and Kendall Wright, were also among the most consistent at their position.

Wide receivers who rack up a lot of YAC per game generally receive more high percentage targets closer to the line of scrimmage, making it easier for them to sustain a high catch rate on a weekly basis. The inherent consistency of receivers that average a high amount of YAC per game makes them great cash game plays.

To further illustrate just how useful a high-YAC receiver can be in cash games, consider the case of Wright versus Vincent Jackson, who runs deeper routes and averages less YAC per game:

How Red Zone Opportunities Affect Wide Receiver Value

Red Zone targets have a moderately strong correlation to fantasy points per game because sixty-seven percent of receiving touchdowns occur in the red zone. I will further discuss touchdowns shortly.

Another reason that red zone targets correlate well with fantasy points per game for receivers is that wideouts who are drawing those critical red zone targets are generally the receivers the team feels most confident about using all over the field (unlike tight end, where there are more red zone specialists). 

Red zone targets can be useful in spotting breakout performers that are still undervalued. For example, in 2013, both Julian Edelman (1.44) and Keenan Allen (1.40) finished in the top 10 in red zone targets per game. Taking note of their red zone looks early on could have served as an alert that these players may be ticketed for large roles within their offenses.

Upside and the Importance of Maximizing Touchdowns

Recall that for running backs, I suggested viewing upside in terms of touchdown potential rather than big play potential because rushing touchdowns happen more often than long rushing plays. Does the same theory apply to wide receivers? 

How Quarterbacks Affect Wide Receiver Value

To determine how a wide receiver’s quarterback impacts his fantasy production, I calculated the correlations between receiver fantasy points per game and his team’s passing statistics:

How Injuries Affect Wide Receiver Value

Roddy White suffered an ankle injury last preseason and proceeded not to top 45 receiving yards in a game though the season’s first five weeks before being shut down for a few games. Similarly, Marques Colston went through a three game lull that saw him catch only six passes for 44 yards before being shut down for a game with a knee injury. Even going back to 2012, Hakeem Nicks suffered knee and ankle injuries in week 2 of and has caught only two touchdowns in 25 games since.

The takeaway from what is described above is that wide receivers’ production can take a severe hit when they are playing through an injury, especially one to the leg. As a daily fantasy player, you need to be aware of each player’s injury history, frequently check the injury report, and monitor recoveries from all injuries. If a receiver’s production has taken a hit since an injury, wait until you see on-field proof of a full recovery before taking him into consideration again.

How Weather and Field Conditions Affect Wide Receiver Value

Last November on a windy night in Foxboro, the normally pass happy Broncos called 48 runs and only 36 passes in a loss to the Patriots. While some of the rushing volume is explained because the Broncos jumped out to a big lead, heavy winds also deterred Peyton Manning from throwing the football as much as he usually does. When he did throw he was ineffective, averaging only 4.2 yards per attempt. While the wind rarely comes into play, extremely heavy winds can sometimes be a factor in the passing game. Heavy rains can also have an impact, discouraging passing or making it more difficult. Be sure to check the weather of any game from which you are selecting receivers.

It is also prudent to keep an eye out for quick, shifty, agile wide receivers playing games indoors on field turf because while straight-line speed is usually similar between field turf and natural grass, change-of-direction speed tends to be faster on field turf. Hilton is a great example: he averages 16.71 yards per reception playing on field turf in Lucas Oil Stadium, a mark which sinks to 12.35 on the road where he sees a lot more natural grass. Value may be found in an agile receiver playing indoors, especially if he plays home games on natural grass. By the same token, beware when a receiver's salary increases undeservedly due to a recent, abnormally strong indoor performance.

Recap

1. Save on wide receiver in cash games; pay up for wide receiver in tournaments.
2. Select heavily targeted receivers.
3. High YAC per game can indicate that a receiver is consistent and a good cash game choice.
4. Analyze the type and quality of coverage the receiver will face each week.
5. Favor receivers with size.
6. View upside as touchdown potential rather than big play potential.
7. Quarterbacks have a moderate impact on receiver fantasy production; take a look at cheap receivers on a team with an elite quarterback.
8. Closely monitor all injuries and downgrade receivers potentially playing through leg injuries.
9. Take into account the effect of extreme winds and give agile receivers a boost when playing indoors.

Chris Raybon will be covering FanDuel and DraftDay value/optimal plays on a weekly basis each week this season. To learn more about Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) click here.