2015 Late-Risers: Where to Target Them?

Aug 28, 2015

Average Draft Position (ADP) data is a great tool, but it can be misleading this late in the draft season. There are players who are – for one reason or another – surging in the draft, and since ADP is historical, it may not accurately capture a player’s current stock. These players merit extra discussion, especially if we’re trying to target them on draft day.

Even identifying them takes some work. To that end, I compared MFL10 best ball ADP from August 8-21 to data from August 22-28. The MFL10 ADP user base is sharp, so owners drafting in typical friends and family leagues may find that players slip a bit further than the data below may show.

I ranked each player based on his difference in raw picks and by a percentage of his original ADP. I did this so we can look not only at the big movers, but also the big movers relative to their original ADP. For example, on the heels of the Jordy Nelson injury, Randall Cobb has seen a five-spot ADP move, but that’s pretty significant considering his original ADP was 2.10.

Note: Owners should always be aware of where the player is ranked at the site that hosts their league or draft. Many owners rely on site rankings to draft, so if a player is ranked a round higher at ESPN than his ADP at MFL, then he’s not likely to last that long.

The table shows the ADP data, and my observations are below.

Biggest Risers in MFL10 ADP
#	Name	Team	Pos	Pos ADP	ADP	Round	Std Dev	Old ADP	Diff	% Diff
1	Davante Adams	GB	WR	28	49	5.1	9.4	101	52	51%
2	Devin Funchess	CAR	WR	43	99	9.2	13.1	141	42	30%
3	Brandon Coleman	NO	WR	63	164	14.6	22.5	200	36	18%
4	Ronnie Hillman	DEN	RB	56	175	15.6	36.0	204	29	14%
5	Eddie Royal	CHI	WR	45	107	9.9	12.2	129	23	17%
6	Matt Jones	WAS	RB	51	146	13.2	23.9	171	25	15%
7	Markus Wheaton	PIT	WR	54	134	12.2	20.6	154	20	13%
8	Jeff Janis	GB	WR	67	179	15.9	29.7	210	31	15%
9	David Cobb	TEN	RB	43	104	9.7	15.1	120	16	13%
10	Darren McFadden	DAL	RB	44	114	10.5	16.0	131	16	12%
11	Mike Davis	SF	RB	68	199	17.5	30.9	221	23	10%
12	Richard Rodgers	GB	TE	25	178	15.8	18.8	203	25	12%
13	Greg Olsen	CAR	TE	4	54	5.5	8.0	61	8	12%
14	Alfred Blue	HOU	RB	41	92	8.7	15.2	103	11	10%
15	Chris Ivory	NYJ	RB	28	63	6.3	9.0	71	8	11%
16	Jonas Gray	NE	RB	53	165	14.8	28.2	179	14	8%
17	Brandin Cooks	NO	WR	13	26	3.2	4.4	31	5	16%
18	Arian Foster	HOU	RB	29	65	6.4	15.9	72	7	10%
19	Randall Cobb	GB	WR	7	17	2.4	2.7	22	5	24%
20	Leonard Hankerson	ATL	WR	77	204	18.0	24.4	219	15	7%
21	Phillip Dorsett	IND	WR	60	154	13.8	21.7	165	11	7%
22	John Brown	ARI	WR	34	79	7.6	8.1	86	7	8%
23	Ryan Mathews	PHI	RB	35	86	8.1	11.5	93	7	8%
24	Ben Watson	NO	TE	29	211	18.6	23.3	224	13	6%
25	Jordan Matthews	PHI	WR	14	30	3.5	3.8	34	4	13%
26	Doug Martin	TB	RB	26	56	5.7	9.2	61	5	8%
27	Nelson Agholor	PHI	WR	29	65	6.4	7.1	71	6	8%
28	Amari Cooper	OAK	WR	17	44	4.6	7.4	48	5	10%
29	Cecil Shorts	HOU	WR	76	198	17.5	25.1	210	12	6%
30	Jason Witten	DAL	TE	8	104	9.6	14.8	111	7	6%