Streaming Quarterbacks: Week 4 Targets

Sep 29, 2015

There was a quarterback called Nicholas Edward Foles, and he almost deserved it.

Week 3 was not good to my optimal streamer, and I owe you an apology for just how badly Nick Foles and the Rams played. Reflecting on the problem, I attribute much of it to heavy reliance on a small, two-week sample size. We had one good Foles week -- at home -- and one bad week -- on the road. With limited information, there was reason to like Foles last week at home against a bad defense.

The process was mostly sound, but the results were terrifically bad -- Foles managed only 6.88 points. We still like QBs at home, and we still like them against the Steelers. But I no longer like Nick Foles as a streaming option. Against a defense with more holes than Swiss cheese, the Rams lost a 12-6 horror.

With three weeks under our belt, our stats are now more reliable, so hopefully these sorts of disasters won't happen frequently. But last week was a disaster. Now, our optimal streamer is averaging 15.77 points per game, and overall our streamers are averaging 15.11 points. That's good enough for QB15 and QB16, still not bad for players you can have added for zero cost, but I want to see improvement.

As a final note, aFPA is now live, so that data will be an important element in our streaming decisions.

This week, there are three strong plays that stand out well above the rest. Here they are.

Week 4 QB Streaming Targets

Andy Dalton vs KC

After two strong weeks to start the season, I foolishly went away from Andy Dalton last week when he went on the road to Baltimore. For most of the game it looked like a bad choice, but in the final seven minutes it turned horrific. Dalton was Week 3’s second-best QB, and I immediately regretted doubting him. This week, there is no reason to doubt.

Dalton gets to play Kansas City at home. Through three weeks the Chiefs rank as the second-best matchup for QBs in terms of aFPA. Dalton himself is QB3 overall, in fantasy points per attempt, and per game. Not bad for a guy whose draft price was around QB21 as late as the start of Week 1.

Dalton is available in 52% of leagues, which is noteworthy. He is a potential plug-and-play starter after three strong games in a row. You should absolutely add Dalton if he’s free in your league. He is my optimal streamer of the week.