Streaming Tight Ends: Week 16 Targets

Dec 20, 2016

We’ve reached the tail end of the fantasy football season, and if you’re reading this, there’s a solid chance your team is still alive, fighting for that elusive championship. It’s win-or-go-home time, so it is imperative to have the best possible roster at your disposal moving forward. Is the TE you drafted, starter-worthy this week or are you better off grabbing someone off the waiver wire to get the TE1 production your team needs to survive?

The main focus of our research when looking at a TE’s matchup is 4for4’s Schedule-Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (aFPA) metric. As the season continues to progress and more data is available, aFPA becomes more and more reliable, using rolling 10-week data. Targets and efficiency metrics are also considered when coming up with weekly TE streamers.

Our goal in streaming is to roster a player that is going to return TE1 fantasy points, and for Week 15, all four of my guys finished in the Top 20. Charles Clay was TE1 with 20.2 PPR points, Ryan Griffin had 16.5 points as TE5, Ladarius Green was TE12 with 12.2, and Jermaine Gresham rounded out the top 20 at the TE position by putting up 7.2 PPR points.

After 15 weeks of football, 4for4 streaming candidates are averaging 8.65 PPR fantasy points per game. The optimal TE streamer has a combined 189.0 PPR fantasy points, enough for TE1 on the season. On to Week 16, where those of us who are still playing, need to put it all on the table in the hopes of basking in the glory of a fantasy championship.

In order to provide advice that you can actually implement, candidates for streaming must be available in at least 40% of Yahoo fantasy leagues.

Charles Clay (BUF) vs. MIA

Before the season started in our pre-fantasy draft coverage, I was all over Charles Clay as a sleeper for the 2016-2017 season. Well, it took most of the season but he has arrived.

In Week 15, Clay put up 20.2 PPR points versus the Cleveland Browns, the fifth-worst D when it comes to defending the TE position. This week, he gets to stay home to face a Miami D, who is tied with the Browns when it comes to aFPA with 15.5 PPR points allowed to TEs this season. Couple this matchup with the fact that Buffalo head coach Rex Ryan is fighting for his job, and the team has an outside shot at a playoff berth, and we could see big numbers from Clay as they attempt to expose the Dolphin’s weaknesses.

Clay is still only owned by 12% of Yahoo fantasy teams, so grab him if you’re in search of more points from the TE this week for your championship game. Or the semifinals, if your league rolls through Week 17.