Free Agency Aftermath: Underdog Fantasy Football ADP Risers & Fallers
The NFL legal tampering period began on March 10 and while not everyone has found a home yet, there was plenty of movement, causing fantasy football values to change. With two full weeks of best ball drafts since free agency opened, let's examine how Underdog ADP has shifted by comparing ADP data from March 10 to March 23.
I'll go position by position highlighting the largest movement in both directions courtesy of the 4for4 Underdog ADP tool.
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More Free Agency Fallout: Free Agency Winners & Losers | Player Profiles |
Quarterbacks
QB Risers
Justin Fields, Jets (ADP: 129.2, -31,6)
No QB has spiked more in ADP than Justin Fields since free agency began. For now, he is the only viable starter at the position on the Jets roster so even with his limitations, he's in the fantasy QB2 conversation. It helps that Fields will be surrounded by some valuable fantasy assets such as Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall, which likely helped to raise his Underdog ADP from the 14th round up to the 11th as QB18. For more on the QB's outlook in 2025, check out this profile by Pranav Rajaram.
Matthew Stafford, Rams (ADP: 152.8, -9.9)
The 37-year-old is back for the 2025 season after a QB19 campaign last year but instead of Cooper Kupp in his arsenal, he gets Davante Adams to pair with Puka Nacua. Matthew Stafford still has some power left in his arm and with Sean McVay at the helm, this offense always has the potential to be exciting. Adams in LA likely caused the 10-spot jump, but Stafford is still in the low-end QB2 range for best ball purposes only.
QB Fallers
Anthony Richardson, Colts ( ADP: 159.1, +10.6)
It's been sad to watch the fall of Anthony Richardson but we're now looking at an open competition for the Colts' starting gig between the former first-round dual-threat QB and Daniel Jones. Yes, that Daniel Jones. Richardson slid down to spot 14.03 over the last few weeks but could be a steal if he can clean up his throwing motion thanks to sessions with Chris Hess, the same biometrics coach who worked with Josh Allen.
Running Backs
RB Risers
Elijah Mitchell, Chiefs (ADP: 205.7, -34.3)
Mitchell signed with the Chiefs on March 10th, causing a four-day 22.2 ADP spike only to have them re-sign Kareem Hunt on the 14th. Mitchell's ADP rise has landed him in the early 18th round thanks to what could be a frustrating KC committee backfield all dependent on health. Despite flashes of promise, the former 49er is still only a late-round best ball dart unless something big happens this summer.
Javonte Williams, Cowboys (ADP: 154.2, 34.1)
This is a prove-it season for Javonte Williams but he landed in a decent spot to do so in 2025. Rico Dowdle is still without a home for the year and Dallas could end up bringing him back, but for now, Williams has the reigns of the RB room ahead of the NFL Draft. He's a few years removed from his knee injury and hasn't quite lived up to his projections in the NFL, so should be considered an RB3/flex heading into 2025 with the ability to put up RB2 numbers if he stays healthy and has the workload of the Cowboys' lead back. For a full write-up on Williams in Dallas, check out this piece I wrote after the signing.
Najee Harris, Chargers (ADP: 84.7, -21.1)
There wasn't a better landing spot for Najee Harris from a fantasy perspective as he should operate in the role vacated by Gus Edwards as the early-down guy but also possesses pass-catching prowess. Of course, the rumor mill via The Athletic already has LA adding another "explosive player" to the RB group this offseason, so Harris' value is still TBD until that backfield is fully solidified. Harris jumped nearly three rounds up to the early eighth upon signing with the Chargers as the RB26 and could keep climbing into comfy RB2 range if he keeps the high-volume job over the summer. Justin Edwards inked a full profile on Harris and what to expect heading into 2025.
RB Fallers
Roschon Johnson, Bears (ADP: 234.4, +24.0)
I can't figure out where the recent Roschon Johnson hate is coming from other than mocks showing the Bears taking an RB in possibly Round 3 this April. Dropping a full three rounds in early best ball drafts is something, especially when nothing has really happened to Johnson or his fellow backfield. He's in the third year of his rookie deal and has finished as an RB53 and RB60 respectively in half-PPR scoring per contest. The 24-year-old is leaving Underdog boards as the RB72 in the 20th round and could climb back if Chicago goes in a different direction in the NFL Draft.
J.K. Dobbins, FA (ADP: 121.9, +14.5)
With no team for the 2025 season yet, J.K. Dobbins has been sliding down drafts with a current ADP of 11.02 as the RB37. He was on the field for 13 contests in 2024 but only played in a total of nine games in the two years prior due to various knee issues. Entering his age-27 season, Dobbins should be an asset somewhere and will be in the fantasy conversation as a flex/handcuff as the offseason continues.
Wide Receivers
WR Risers
Joshua Palmer, Bills ( ADP: 182.8, -56.3)
Since joining the Buffalo Bills, Joshua Palmer experienced close to a whopping five-round surge in Underdog ADP. The former Charger will likely serve as the replacement for Mack Hollins who saw the second-most snaps on the outside for Buffalo in 2024. Palmer joins Khalil Shakir and a still-developing Keon Coleman and could have some new life with Josh Allen and OC Joe Brady in the mix. Palmer is currently the 75th WR off the boards and is 4for4's WR72 in the Never-too-Early Ranks.
Mike Williams, Chargers (ADP: 210.7, -29.1)
Speaking of the Chargers, Mike Williams is back after spending last season with both the Jets and Steelers. A reunion with Justin Herbert is likely a good thing, but he'll compete for the team's WR3 spot, assuming Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston are ahead of the oft-injured 30-year-old. Even with a 29-spot jump, Williams is an 18th-rounder and should be nothing more than a nice way to end a Chargers stack in best ball drafts.
DeAndre Hopkins, Ravens (ADP: 188.2, 24.2)
Is anyone ready for another ride on the DeAndre Hopkins-is-in-a-new-place train? Your excitement is not palpable. However, his ADP did elevate by a full two rounds since joining the Ravens so it seems that some drafters are mildly excited. Nuk is not the elite pass catcher he once was and Baltimore has not been a hotbed for fantasy wideouts, but as a 16th-rounder he's a fine depth piece heading into 2025.
WR Fallers
Jordan Whittington, Rams (ADP: 201.8, +33.5)
RIP to the short-lived idea of Jordan Whittington as the Rams WR3 or even possibly the WR2. The acquisition of Davante Adams sent Whittingon's ADP into a tailspin from 14.12 down to 17.10. He may have some spike weeks and of course, could be more valuable with an injury to someone above him, so don't avoid the Ram at his current bargain price in these early Underdog formats.
Andrei Iosivas, Bengals (ADP: 204.0, +14.2)
The fall in ADP for Andre Iosivas is most likely just him catching strays from the big Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins contracts. He should still be the WR3 for Cincinnati this season but will likely battle it out with Jermaine Burton who had a rough 2024 both on and off the field. Iosivas could be a valuable best ball roster add due to his upside and still inexpensive price tag since he's now a late 17th-rounder.
Tight Ends
TE Risers
Brenton Strange, Jaguars (ADP: 180.0, -23.3)
With Evan Engram out of the way, Brenton Strange now has the keys to the Jaguars TE room. Even with a near two-round jump, Strange is a solid value at pick 15.12 as the TE2 if you grab a top TE, or as part of a later-round three-TE build.
Juwan Johnson, Saints (ADP: 206.5, -21.8)
While Juwan Johnson staying in New Orleans isn't the sexiest option, his re-signing caused a 22-spot rise in ADP. Johnson is coming off his best statistical year for fantasy and real life and will be a fruitful safety valve for Derek Carr or whoever ends up under center for the Saints. Right now he's giving value as the TE28 in the 18th round.
Evan Engram, Broncos (ADP: 131.5, -17.0)
It's been pretty inconsistent in the Evan Engram fantasy streets but considering how brutal the position is he's posted two fantasy TE1s and one TE2 finish in the last three seasons. The former Jag is now in Denver presumably taking on Sean Payton's "Joker" role which likely aided in his recent ADP bump. Engram should be considered a fringe TE1/TE2 which is where he's leaving draft boards now as the Underdog TE13.
TE Fallers
Noah Gray, Chiefs (ADP: 228.3, +11.8)
Perhaps drafters thought Travis Kelce was going to ride off into the sunset and tour the world with Taylor Swift and when that didn't happen, Noah Gray fell in ADP. Gray averaged just 2.9 targets per contest in 2024 which may jump a bit as KC could preserve Kelce for the postseason even more in 2025 as he enters his age-35 campaign. Buy the dip for those last-round stabs as Gray could be valuable in certain weeks for best ball purposes.
