DraftKings Week 8 GPP Breakdown

Oct 28, 2016

Last week was an incredible week for chalk plays, which may cause overconfidence this week. As you read through the plays listed in this space, remember that players listed are those I’m in favor of owning at a higher percentage than the field is collectively projected to own them. That’s why you won’t see chalk plays like Julio Jones and Mike Evans listed. They are, of course, two of the highest ceiling options on the slate, but it would be very risky to own them more than the 30-40% we project them to be owned because they are some of the most expensive players on the slate. For an in-depth discussion on how you should approach exposure to chalk plays, as well as bust rates of chalk, check out this week’s DFS MVP podcast with TJ Hernandez and I (the segment on chalk begins at 51:24).

QB

Brock Osweiler $5,400 vs. DET

Osweiler’s narrative is overly negative due to a brutal road schedule, but he’s averaged 1.75 TDs at home and faces a Lions defense that ranks dead last in QB aFPA and allowed a QB2 overall finish to Case Keenum the week prior to last. The texans may rely on the pass more than usual given the matchup and the questionable status of Lamar Miller (shoulder).

Matthew Stafford $6,400 @ HOU

Stafford has been brilliant in 16 game since Jim Bob Cooter took over, sporting a 68.4% completion rate and a 35-8 TD-to-interception ratio. Always a threat to get into a shootout due to his team’s pitiful defense, it looks like Stafford will get Theo Riddick and Eric Ebron back this week. The Texans defense may be overrated versus QBs — Andrew Luck posted 24.48 points against them, while the other QBs they faced were Jay Cutler, Alex Smith, Jacoby Brissett, Marcus Mariota, Sam Bradford, and Trevor Siemian.