DFS Wide Receiver Analysis: Conference Championship Round

Jan 18, 2018

With only four teams in action, almost every wide receiver that sees any significant playing time is worthy of consideration. Rather than breaking down the position by ownership or pricing tiers, this week’s wide receiver analysis will discuss how to attack the position for each team, while still referencing expected ownership and pricing.

Jaguars

With no Jacksonville wide receiver priced above $4,500 on DraftKings, three of their receivers register as top-four values at their position on DK. Marqise Lee ($6,100 FD/$4,400 DK) and Dede Westbrook ($5,500/$3,900) project as the highest-owned Jags receivers, likely as correlation plays with or leverage plays off of the Patriots in a game where the over/under is 46.5 and Jacksonville is an 8.5-point underdog. In two playoff games, Westbrook has accounted for 23.4% of Jacksonville’s targets but it was Lee who led the way in the divisional round, targeted 6 times for a 24% market share. When healthy, Lee has been Blake Bortles’ preferred red zone target, which makes Lee a bit more intriguing on FanDuel.

While Jacksonville is essentially playing a four-man rotation now that they have their receiving corps at full health, Allen Hurns ($5,300/$3,300) and Keelan Cole ($5,800/$3,500) can be viewed as nothing more than salary-saving dart throws—both receivers have failed to exceed two targets in the Jaguars' two playoff games. For owners who will favor lower ownership over potential usage, Hurns should get the nod as he has played most of his snaps in the slot since returning from injury, and slot cornerback Eric Rowe has been the Patriots' most vulnerable DB down the stretch. There is some reason to believe that this entire receiving corps could have a higher than expected floor relative to their first two playoff games—the spread suggests Jacksonville will be in a must-throw game script and New England is one of the best teams in the league at making a team play “left-handed”. In this case, that would mean stacking the box against Leonard Fournette and making the Jags win through the air.