Jake's DK Top Plays and Best Bets for PGA Mexico Open

What's up, guys? I'm pumped to be putting out some golf content as we get into the season. For those new to betting golf, it is a very high-variance sport, so you should not expect to hit an outright or ship a DFS contest every week. However, you should definitely be able to book some solid wins throughout the course of the season.

Every week on Wednesday afternoons, I’ll be posting a few of my favorite DraftKings plays in this article with brief write-ups of each player. I will also include some of my “best bets” for the week as well. I’ll use this space up top to recap the previous week and share any thoughts or takeaways I have going forward. I’ll include my top plays from the week prior, their DK Price, where they finished on the leaderboard, and how many DK points they scored.

This article will be FREE every week, but with access to a 4for4 betting sub, this is what else you can expect:

Weekly article with my top DFS plays on DraftKings for the Classic, full-weekend slate.

The article may include some bets I've made for the week. Bets will also be posted in the staff-golf-plays channel. Be sure to turn on the @Staff Golf Plays ping to get a notification for when plays are put out. More information on how to join the 4for4 Discord is at the end of this article.

Types of bets and volume of bets will vary from week to week but may include: Outrights, Top X market, full weekend H2H, etc. All depends on where I see the value, so I can't guarantee it will be the same every week

The weekly model that I create on the Rabbit Hole is at BetSpertsGolf.com. I will include some snippets from my model in the article, but to have full access to my model and more, see below.

Mexico Open Rabbit Hole Model (see below for top 30 in my model):

Using promo code JAKE10 will get you your first month for $10 (regularly $29.99).

With a BetSperts subscription, you will have full access to my model as well as Ryan Noonan's, Ron Klos’, and others every week. You can also create your own model too. You will also get access to the BetSperts discord, where Ron and Ryan release bets as well: Outrights, T5/10/20/40, H2H Matchups, 3Balls, etc.

Feel free to drop a message in the Discord channel or on Twitter with any questions you may have.

Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week

• SG: Approach - Last 50 rounds; course length Average, Long, and Very Long
• Driving Distance - Last 2 years; course length Long and Very Long
• SG: Ball Striking - Last 50 rounds; easy and average scoring
• OVR Proximity - Last 2 Years; big and average greens
• SG: T2G - in 2025 (recent form)

Link to weekly Rabbit Hole Model

Mexico Open Top Plays (DK Price, Longest Outright Odds, My Model Rank)

Kurt Kitayama, $10.2K, +25/1 BOL, 1st in model

Kitayama checks in as the number one play on my model this week, and there are a few categories that really caught my eye:

• 1st in Ball Striking in windy conditions
• 2nd in SG: Ball Striking on easy and average courses
• 7th in SG: Approach in the last 50 rounds
• 33rd in Driving Distance in the last 50 rounds

Kitayama hasn't had much success yet this season, with his best finish a T37 at the Sony Open. However, he's been mashing the ball; in the last 2 months, Kitayama ranks 10th in driving distance in this week's field and has gained strokes OTT in every start in 2025. Kurt finished 2024 strong, T25, T9, 5th in his last three starts. Kitayama has made one start here at Vidanta, where he finished T2 in 2022, and I expect similar results in 2025.

Nicolai Hojgaard, $8.1K, 40/1 Widely Available, 2nd in model

Nicolai is coming off a lackluster season despite the promising start of his 2024 season with a 2nd place finish at the Farmers Insurance. Nicolai finished his fall and winter golf season very well in Europe, only finishing outside the Top 20 in two of his last six tournaments. Nicolai is one of the longest hitters in the field and has historically been one of the better approach players in the field as well. In Nicolai’s only PGA start of the 2025 season (The WM Phoenix Open), he flashed his Approach play, finishing 7th in Approach (+1.33) in the tournament. Nicolai’s distance, paired with his iron play, makes him a great fit for Vidanta Vallarta.

Kevin Yu, $8.8K, 35/1 FD/DK, 5th in model

Yu is making his Mexico Open debut, and there aren’t many courses that fit his game better. In the last 2 months, Yu has been the field’s 3rd best ball striker. Yu has historically been an off-and-on approach player but has put together five straight tournaments, gaining 0.59 strokes or better on approach play. Yu’s spiking ball striking ability and the forgiving course when you “miss” a shot perfectly fit Yu’s game. Yu is also one of the longer hitters in the field as well.

Erik Van Rooyen, $7.5K, 60/1 FD/Cs, 32nd in model

A strength of Van Rooyen's game is his success on long approaches; lucky for him, over 60% of approach shots from last year's Mexico Open came from 175+ yards out. Van Rooyen has teed it up twice here and has finished T33 and T8. In 2024, Van Rooyen finished 14th in the field on approach, and in 2023, he finished 9th on approach. While Van Rooyen profiles as a rather average approach player, his approach game has spiked here due to the increased approach shots from 175+.

Victor Perez, $7.3K, 140/1 Bet365, 11th in model

Like Van Rooyen, one of Perez’s strengths is his long-iron game. Using data from Perez’s three starts in the 2025 season, he ranks 3rd in the field on approach shots from 150-200 and 24th on approach shots from 200-250; despite the small sample size, it’s good to see his long-iron game has been good. Perez is also historically one of the field’s best putters. In his weekly course preview, Ron Klos notes, “Putting is the only area that presents a true challenge at Vidanta as it has been the 15th toughest course to gain strokes with the flat stick. And it was also inside the top 10 for difficulty inside of 15 feet.” Perez can get hot with the flat stick, and ranks 17th in the field in SG: Putting on surfaces with an average speed in the last 50 rounds.

Play of the Week: Nicolai Hojgaard

Mexico Open Best Bets

72 Hole Matchup:

C.T. Pan > Justin Lower -115 Caesars

Outright Winner:

Kurt Kitayama 25/1 BOL, 22/1 Widely Available

4for4 Additional Info

Be sure to be in the 4for4 Discord, as I may push out additional plays that are not in the article, or there may be some odds movement on some of the bets. The best way to get access to the bets as they are released is to join our subscriber-only Discord. All of our staff’s plays are released there, and that is the best way to guarantee you get the original line we post. Join the Discord to receive push notifications whenever a prop is released by the 4for4 team. Go to Channels & Roles and customize your Discord experience.

You can join our Discord for free here! Make sure to add the PGA-Betting Channel to your channel list and turn on alerts for @Staff_Golf_Plays to get notifications for the bets as they are released.

For more betting content and takeaways, check out my Twitter (@JakeLotenberg2) and subscribe to our Discord. I’ll be tracking my best bet results at the end of each week and updating the article accordingly the following week.

This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.