Jake's DK Top Plays and Best Bets for the Texas Children's Houston Open

Every week on Wednesday afternoons, I’ll be posting a few of my favorite DraftKings plays in this article with brief write-ups of each player. I will also include some of my “best bets” for the week as well. I’ll use this space up top to recap the previous week and share any thoughts or takeaways I have going forward. I’ll include my top plays from the week prior, their DK Price, where they finished on the leaderboard, and how many DK points they scored. This article will be FREE every week, but with access to a 4for4 betting sub, you will get access to our discord and all of our bets (PGA + other sports).

Valspar Championship Recap:

Last week was OK. We had our first golfer (Rico Hoey) miss the cut for the first time in 3 weeks. Hoey has been one of the golf ball's best drivers this season, which was paramount at the Valspar this week; unfortunately, like he has all season, he putt himself out of the tournament. Despite Keith's lackluster T54 finish, he still scored a lot of DK points because of numerous birdies, an eagle, and a streak, so he definitely hit value for us. Just like always, Fleetwood finished inside the Top 20 but never really contended to win the tournament despite being the favorite coming into the tournament. The highlight of the week was Jacob Bridgeman. Bridgeman held the co-lead going into Sunday and was the second favorite in the outright market, only behind Hovland Sunday AM. Bridgeman fell two shots short of forcing a playoff against Hovland, and his 3-putt of four feet on the 5th hole has to haunt him. 103 DK points and a 3rd-place finish from a $7,100 golfer, even at high ownership, is fantastic, and we can't ask for more.

Valspar Championship Rabbit Hole Model (see below for Top 40 in my model):

Using promo code: JAKE10 you will get your first month $10 (regularly $29.99).

With a BetSperts subscription, you will have full access to my model as well as Ryan Noonan's, Ron Klos’, and others every week. You can also create your own model too. You will also get access to the BetSperts discord, where Ron and Ryan release bets as well: Outrights, T5/10/20/40, H2H Matchups, 3Balls, etc.

Feel free to drop a message in the Discord channel or on Twitter with any questions you may have.

My Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week:

• SG: T2G / BS - Last 20 rounds (recent form)
• Dr Distance - Last 50 rounds (Driver heavy courses)
• SG: ARG - Last 50 rounds (Gain ARG difficult & very difficult)
• Scrambling % Short Grass - Last 50 rounds
• GIR % - Last 50 rounds (Gain approach difficult and very diff)

Valspar Championship DraftKings Top Plays (DK Price, Outright Odds, Model Rank)

Rory McIlroy, $11.7K, +7.5/1 ESPN, 2nd in model

Key Stats:

• 1st in SG: OTT (L50 Rounds Driver Heavy Courses)
• 5th in Bogey AVD % (Par 3&4 Scoring Average/Difficult)
• 6th in SG: BS (L36 Rounds Long/Very Long Courses)
• 10th in SG: P (L24 Rounds)

Coming off his win at The PLAYERS, Rory is arguably playing the best golf of his career. This will be Rory’s first time teeing it up at Memorial Park, but there is no doubt his game is tailor-made for a course like this, where Driving Distance is strongly correlated with high placement. There are several similarities between Memorial Park and Quail Hollow, where Rory has four wins, most recently last year (Wells Fargo). The $1,000 discount you get from Rory to Scottie makes him the preferred starting point for cash lineups.

Already has two wins in the four PGA events he’s played this season (AT&T Pebble Beach and The Players).

Ben Griffin, $7.9K, +80/1 BOL, 25th in model

Key Stats:

• 10th in SG:P (L50 Rounds Poa Trivialis)
• 12th in SG:T2G (L18 Months Driver Heavy Courses)
• 25th in GIR % (L18 Months Gain APP Difficult/Very Difficult)
• 18th in ARG Prox (L18 Months Big Greens)

Griffin is a jack of all trades; his ball striking can have some severe spike weeks, and his short game can, too. To fare well at Memorial Park, golfers have to be accurate with their irons, hit a lot of greens, and be able to save par when they miss greens. Griffin has one of the field's best short games and a solid ball-striking game; he fits the course well and has T16 and T36 finishes in his two starts here.

Taylor Pendrith, $8.5K, +50/1 BOL, 14th in model

Key Stats:

• 6th in SG:BS (L20 Rounds)
• 9th in SG:OTT (L18 Months Driver Heavy Courses)
• 1st in OVR Prox (L18 Months Gain APP Difficult/Very Difficult)
• 24th in Scrambling Short Grass % (L50 Rounds)

Pendrith had his best season on tour in 2024 and closed it out as one of the hottest golfers in the world. Pendrith remained one of the tour's best ball strikers to start the season in 2025, but his amazing putting success in 2024 did not continue. In the three weeks leading up to the PLAYERS, Pendrith had, on average, lost over a stroke putting per round but showed signs of life at the PLAYERS, which he said in an interview he had really been working hard on. Elite ball strikers should separate themselves at every course on tour, but if they don't have the short game to back it up, they won't finish well. I am betting on Pendrith's elite ball striking and hoping his putting game also turns a corner. On paper, his Achilles heel has always been his ARG play, but at a course where most of the scrambling and ARG play comes from the short grass, that is actually where he has the most success around the green.

Nicolai Hojgaard $7.4K, +100/1 FD/MGM, 22nd in model

Key Stats:

• 8th in SG:APP (L20 Rounds)
• 15th in SG:BS (L36 Rounds Long/Very Long Courses)
• 17th in SG:ARG (L18 Months Gain ARG Difficult/Very Difficult)
• 21st in SG:P (L24 Rounds)

Nicolai is one of the longest golfers on tour, and it’s no surprise that his prior success has come at long courses. In his first-ever start at Augusta (comp course) last season, Nicolai finished T16; Augusta is one of the longest courses on tour and demands savvy chipping from tight lies on short grass, just like Memorial Park. Nicolai’s play has been up and down this season, but in the past two weeks, he has missed both cuts. Those were at courses that demand accuracy OTT; this week, he can pull driver often and swing freely.

PLAY OF THE WEEK: Taylor Pendrith

Betting Recap (last week and season):

Valspar Championship: 2-6, -$17

Overall: 8-13, $531

38.09% ROI

Assumes betting to win $100 on a minus odds prop and risking $100 on a plus odds prop. On outrights and longshot bets, tracking TO WIN $100

Make sure to join Discord to get the bets for this week!

4for4 Additional Info:

Be sure to be in the 4for4 Discord, as I may push out additional plays that are not in the article, or there may be some odds movement on some of the bets. The best way to get access to the bets as they are released is to join our subscriber-only Discord. All of our staff’s plays are released there, and that is the best way to guarantee you get the original line we post. Join the Discord to receive push notifications whenever a prop is released by the 4for4 team. Go to Channels & Roles and customize your Discord experience.

You can join our Discord for free here! Make sure to add the PGA-Betting Channel to your channel list and turn on alerts for @Staff_Golf_Plays to get notifications for the bets as they are released.

For more betting content and takeaways, check out my Twitter (@JakeLotenberg2) and subscribe to our Discord. I’ll be tracking my best bet results at the end of each week and updating the article accordingly the following week.

This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.