Jake's DK Top Plays and Best Bets for the RBC Heritage

Every week on Wednesday afternoons, I’ll be posting a few of my favorite DraftKings plays in this article with brief write-ups of each player. I will also include some of my “best bets” for the week as well. I’ll use this space up top to recap the previous week and share any thoughts or takeaways I have going forward. I’ll include my top plays from the week prior, their DK Price, where they finished on the leaderboard, and how many DK points they scored. This article will be FREE every week, but with access to a 4for4 betting sub, you will get access to our discord and all of our bets (PGA + other sports).

The Masters Recap:

Last week was another solid week, highlighted by the great performances of Corey Conners and Patrick Reed. Reed again dominated Augusta, finishing 3rd and almost breaking 100 DK points. Conners had an outside chance of winning Sunday, but a lackluster Sunday saw him fall to T8; at the end of the day, it was a very solid performance by Conners, who, just like Reed, has a great history at Augusta. Rahm and Fleetwood, at their price tags, were okay. Some better options were out there, but they got the job done. Yu was the only blemish on the top plays card this week; in hindsight, a golfer of Yu’s caliber, despite his recent success, is going to struggle at Augusta as he did this past week.

RBC Heritage Rabbit Hole Model (see below for Top 40 in my model):

Using promo code: JAKE10 you will get your first month $10 (regularly $29.99).

With a BetSperts subscription, you will have full access to my model as well as Ryan Noonan's, Ron Klos’, and others every week. You can also create your own model too. You will also get access to the BetSperts discord, where Ron and Ryan release bets as well: Outrights, T5/10/20/40, H2H Matchups, 3Balls, etc.

Feel free to drop a message in the Discord channel or on Twitter with any questions you may have.

My Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week:

• SG:TOT (Harbour Town last 5 years)
• SG: APP (last 50 rounds; difficult and very difficult to gain on approach)
• SG: BS (last 50 rounds, less than driver courses)
• Driving Accuracy (last 50 rounds)
• Scrambling % (last 50 rounds; short/average rough length)
• GIR % (L50 Rounds GIR Accuracy Average/Difficult)

RBC Heritage DraftKings Top Plays (DK Price, Outright Odds, Model Rank)

Collin Morikawa, $10.9K, +11/1 DK/FD, 2nd in model

Key Stats:

• 1st in SG:APP (L6 Months)
• 3rd in SG:BS (L12 Months Off The Tee Club Less Than Driver)
• 4th in Scrambling % (L12 Months Average/Short Rough)
• 1st in BoB % (L30 Rounds)

Morikawa's worst finish in his six starts this season is a T17 finish. Kawa, similarly to Scottie, guarantees you a good finish every single week. Kawa has been hunting for his first win since the fall of 2023, and Harbour Town is a great opportunity for him. Harbour Town often takes the driver out of golfers' hands, which is a test of accuracy off the tee, not distance; golfers need great iron play and a great short game to back it all up. Kawa has struggled with his short game at Harbour Town in the past few years, but has improved that aspect of his game tremendously in the last two years.

Daniel Berger, $8.3k, 55/1 FD, 11th in model

Key Stats:

• 3rd in SG:TOT (L5 Years @ Harbour Town)
• 5th in DFEF (L12 Months Off The Tee Club Less Than Driver)
• 16th in SG:APP (L50 Rounds Difficult/Very Difficult Gain on Approach)
• 11th in SG:ARG (L50 Rounds Very Easy/Easy/Average to Gain ARG)

Berger’s worst finish in the last seven tournaments is a T30 finish at the Valero. Berger is working himself back from injury and is inching closer and closer to his elite play in 2021. Berger, at his best, fit this course like a glove, accurate off the tee, elite iron play, and a good short game to capitalize on birdie looks and save par when missing a green, textbook play to succeed at Harbour Town. In Berger’s last seven tournaments, he’s gained strokes putting, ARG, and on APP in all seven tournaments, and has only lost OTT one week in that stretch.

Aaron Rai, $7.9K, +45/1 FD, 9th in model

Key Stats:

• 7th in SG:BS (L20 Rounds)
• 8th in SG:APP (L12 Months Small Greens)
• 17th in Scrambling % (L12 Months Average/Short Rough)
• 5th in SG:BS (L12 Months Very Short/Short/Average Length Courses)

For years, Rai had been an above-average golfer T2G and Ball Striker on tour, but last year, Rai finally made great progress in his biggest weakness, putting. Rai has gained strokes putting in 8/9 tournaments this season and has proven over the past 12 months that putting is no longer an issue in his game. With his newfound putting skill, Rai can capitalize on his great ball striking and tee-to-green play, making him a fantastic Harbor Town golfer. While Rai is a short hitter, and that is the only knock on his game, that’s a non-factor here as Harbour Town is one of the shortest courses on tour.

Nick Taylor, $6.4K, +175/1 ESPN, 25th in model

Key Stats:

• 12th in SG:P (L2 Years on Poa Trivialis)
• 4th in OVR Prox (L50 Rounds Average/Difficult/Very Difficult Gain on APP)
• 8th in GIR % (L50 Rounds GIR Accuracy Average/Difficult)
• 15th in DFEF (L12 Months Off The Tee Club Less Than Driver)

Taylor struggled in his two starts before the Masters, and many of those struggles are to blame on the putting; Taylor lost over a stroke a round in both of those starts and missed the cut in both. As I wrote above, this is a surface Taylor has historically putt extremely well on, so hopefully, the putting variance is in his favor this week for our sake. On the average tour course, Taylor is at a disadvantage with how short he is off the tee, but this week, Taylor can get away with his lack of distance. At Taylor’s best, he’s hitting greens at a high clip and making putts, and a shorter course should help Taylor’s case.

PLAY OF THE WEEK: Daniel Berger

Betting Recap (last week and season):

The Masters: 6-14-2, -$66

Overall: 15-31, +$360

10.73% ROI

Assumes betting to win $100 on a minus odds prop and risking $100 on a plus odds prop. On outrights and longshot bets, tracking smaller units or TO WIN X amount

Make sure to join Discord to get the rest of the bets for this week!

4for4 Additional Info:

Be sure to be in the 4for4 Discord, as I may push out additional plays that are not in the article, or there may be some odds movement on some of the bets. The best way to get access to the bets as they are released is to join our subscriber-only Discord. All of our staff’s plays are released there, and that is the best way to guarantee you get the original line we post. Join the Discord to receive push notifications whenever a prop is released by the 4for4 team. Go to Channels & Roles and customize your Discord experience.

You can join our Discord for free here! Make sure to add the PGA-Betting Channel to your channel list and turn on alerts for @Staff_Golf_Plays to get notifications for the bets as they are released.

For more betting content and takeaways, check out my Twitter (@JakeLotenberg2) and subscribe to our Discord. I’ll be tracking my best bet results at the end of each week and updating the article accordingly the following week.

This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.