Jake's DK Top Plays and Best Bets for the Masters

Every week on Wednesday afternoons, I’ll be posting a few of my favorite DraftKings plays in this article with brief write-ups of each player. I will also include some of my “best bets” for the week as well. I’ll use this space up top to recap the previous week and share any thoughts or takeaways I have going forward. I’ll include my top plays from the week prior, their DK Price, where they finished on the leaderboard, and how many DK points they scored. This article will be FREE every week, but with access to a 4for4 betting sub, you will get access to our discord and all of our bets (PGA + other sports).

Valero Texas Open Recap:

Last week, we had a down week when it came to the top plays. Kim and Perez both missed the cut. I wrote up Kim and mentioned his struggles with his short game and how great his ball striking has been. However, it completely flipped for Kim; he had one of his best short-game tournaments of the season but was absolutely horrendous striking the ball and never had a chance of making the cut. Perez was three under heading to the back 9 in Round 2, then completely collapsed; his struggles had a lot to do with the fact that he had his worst ARG tournament since the 2023 US Open. Conners was good last week, but when he was getting into contention on Saturday, he finished bogey-bogey to end his chances. Cauley was the highlight of the week and is playing the best golf of his entire career right now. He will be on my radar for the rest of the season (price-dependent).

The Masters Rabbit Hole Model (see below for Top 40 in my model):

Using promo code: JAKE10 you will get your first month $10 (regularly $29.99).

With a BetSperts subscription, you will have full access to my model as well as Ryan Noonan's, Ron Klos’, and others every week. You can also create your own model too. You will also get access to the BetSperts discord, where Ron and Ryan release bets as well: Outrights, T5/10/20/40, H2H Matchups, 3Balls, etc.

Feel free to drop a message in the Discord channel or on Twitter with any questions you may have.

My Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week:

• SG:TOT (at Augusta in the Last 5 Years)
• SG:T2G (Long/Very Long Courses)
• Fairway 200+ (Gain APP Difficult/Very Difficult)
• SG:ARG (Gain ARG Difficult/Very Difficult)
• Par 4 AVG (Long/Very Long Courses and Difficult/Very Difficult Scoring Conditions)

The Masters DraftKings Top Plays (DK Price, Outright Odds, Model Rank)

Jon Rahm, $10.4K, +16/1 ESPN, 5th in model

Key Stats:

• 3rd in SG:TOT (at Augusta in the Last 5 Years)
• 6th in Fairway 200+ (Gain APP Difficult/Very Difficult)
• 8th in SG:T2G (Long/Very Long Courses)
• 7th in SG:BS (L50 Rounds)

Course history is a massive component at Augusta, and Rahm has some of the best history in the field, which is highlighted by his win in 2023. Rahm fits Augusta perfectly; he’s a long and accurate OTT, has elite long iron play, and plays a world-class short game. Augusta debuted Shot Link in 2021, and Rahm has showcased year in and year out that he is one of the best all-around golfers in the world, only losing strokes in a single category in one appearance, and that was putting last year. Rahm hasn’t finished outside of the Top 10 on LIV and has proven over the last 5+ years that he is one of the best in the world.

Tommy Fleetwood, $9.1k, 40/1 DK, 6th in model

Key Stats:

• 14th in SG:TOT (at Augusta in the Last 5 Years)
• 5th in SG:BS (L50 Rounds)
• 7th in Par 4 AVG (Long/Very Long Courses and Difficult/Very Difficult Scoring Conditions)
• 5th in SG:TOT (Last 3 Years in Majors)

Fleetwood always seems to be placing well in the Majors, and at Augusta, it's genuinely shocking that a player of his caliber has never won an event on the PGA Tour. Fleetwood is off to one of his best seasons striking the ball, and before last week's disaster, he hadn't finished worse than T22 this season. Fleetwood has proven himself to be one of the best ball strikers on tour and has had plenty of success striking the ball at Augusta and with his short game too.

Corey Conners, $7.9K, +60/1 Widely Available, 9th in model

Key Stats:

• 13th in SG:TOT (at Augusta in the Last 5 Years)
• 7th in SG:T2G (Long/Very Long Courses)
• 3rd in Par 4 AVG (Long/Very Long Courses and Difficult/Very Difficult Scoring Conditions)
• 14th in TOT Driving (L36 Rounds Driver Heavy)

Conners is playing some of the best golf of his career, possibly the best. His surge over the last five weeks is credited to his consistently amazing ball striking and improved short game. Conners recently made a putter change, and it has done him wonders. Conners has three Top 10 finishes in his seven appearances at Augusta and is in perfect form to log his fourth.

Patrick Reed, $7.3K, +90/1 FD/DK, 25th in model

Key Stats:

• 6th in SG:TOT (at Augusta in the Last 5 Years)
• 17th in Fairway 200+ (Gain APP Difficult/Very Difficult)
• 3rd in SG:ARG (Gain ARG Difficult/Very Difficult)
• 1st in SG:P (Gain Putting Difficult/Very Difficult)

Reed has some of the best course history in the entire field. Despite his move to LIV, he has still dominated at Augusta, with a T4 in 2023 and a T12 in 2024. Reed has one of the best short games in the world and rounds it out with his solid ball striking. The difficult greens and chip shots that Augusta poses haven’t given Reed any issues in the last four years, and he has lapped the field with his short game.

Kevin Yu, $6.3K, +400/1 ESPN, 32nd in model

Key Stats:

• 5th in SG:BS (L20 Rounds)
• 11th in SG:APP (Long/Very Long Courses and Gain APP Difficult/Very Difficult)
• 7th in Fairway 200+ (Gain APP Difficult/Very Difficult)
• 13th in Scrambling Short Grass % (Scrambling Short Grass % Average/Difficult)

Yu is undoubtedly playing the best golf of his career and has gained on approach in nine straight tournaments. Augusta is a significant test on a golfer's short game, and that's Yu's weakness. Still, Augusta's undulated greens pose a challenge different from any typical PGA tour course, so you never know. Yu can smack the ball OTT and has had some of the best irons on tour this season; if this level of ball striking can transfer to his game this week at Augusta, Yu should be making this cut.

PLAY OF THE WEEK: Corey Conners

Betting Recap (last week and season):

Valero Texas Open: 0-1-1, -$125

Overall: 9-16, $426

24.85% ROI

Assumes betting to win $100 on a minus odds prop and risking $100 on a plus odds prop. On outrights and longshot bets, tracking TO WIN $100

72-Hole Matchup Bets this week (my model rank):

Corey Conners (9) > Jason Day (56) -140 DK/FD

Sepp Straka (30) > Dustin Johnson (47) -140 FD, -160 DK

Harris English (51) > Max Homa (63) -195 Cs

Kevin Yu (32) > Davis Riley (74) -182 BOL

Make sure to join Discord to get the rest of the bets for this week!

4for4 Additional Info:

Be sure to be in the 4for4 Discord, as I may push out additional plays that are not in the article, or there may be some odds movement on some of the bets. The best way to get access to the bets as they are released is to join our subscriber-only Discord. All of our staff’s plays are released there, and that is the best way to guarantee you get the original line we post. Join the Discord to receive push notifications whenever a prop is released by the 4for4 team. Go to Channels & Roles and customize your Discord experience.

You can join our Discord for free here! Make sure to add the PGA-Betting Channel to your channel list and turn on alerts for @Staff_Golf_Plays to get notifications for the bets as they are released.

For more betting content and takeaways, check out my Twitter (@JakeLotenberg2) and subscribe to our Discord. I’ll be tracking my best bet results at the end of each week and updating the article accordingly the following week.

This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.