Jake's DK Top Plays and Best Bets for the PLAYERS Championship

Mar 12, 2025

Reinhold Matay-Imagn Images

Every week on Wednesday afternoons, I’ll be posting a few of my favorite DraftKings plays in this article with brief write-ups of each player. I will also include some of my “best bets” for the week as well. I’ll use this space up top to recap the previous week and share any thoughts or takeaways I have going forward. I’ll include my top plays from the week prior, their DK Price, where they finished on the leaderboard, and how many DK points they scored. This article will be FREE every week, but with access to a 4for4 betting sub, you will get access to our discord and all of our bets (PGA + other sports).

Arnold Palmer Invitational Recap:

Unlike the week before, this past weekend's top plays came through for us all besides Justin Thomas. JT, after two rounds, was -3 and T8. JT was looking to make a push into the top 5 and make a run at the win over the weekend; unfortunately for us, one of the best ball strikers on tour (JT) lost strokes ball striking over the final two rounds and played the weekend +6 to tumble down to 36th place. Bridgeman, Spaun, and Lowry all paid off their salary and some. Lowry was sitting in solo first with a two-stroke lead heading into the weekend but posted a Saturday 76, which took him out of the race; still, a 7th-place finish at 8200 is awesome, especially at a course where birdie points are hard to come by. Spaun got the job done at his price point, finishing with a T31. Lastly, Bridgeman more than exceeded expectations; not only did he finish T15, but he scored very well (19 birdies) and was in numerous tournament-winning lineups.

The PLAYERS Championship Rabbit Hole Model (see below for Top 40 in my model):

Using promo code JAKE10, you will get your first month for $10 (regularly $29.99).

With a BetSperts subscription, you will have full access to my model as well as Ryan Noonan's, Ron Klos’, and others every week. You can also create your own model too. You will also get access to the BetSperts discord, where Ron and Ryan release bets as well: Outrights, T5/10/20/40, H2H Matchups, 3Balls, etc.

Feel free to drop a message in the Discord channel or on Twitter with any questions you may have.

My Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week:

SG: T2G / BS - Last 20 rounds (recent form)
Good Drive % - Last 50 rounds (Gain OTT/Approach difficult & very difficult)
SG: Ball-Striking - Last 50 rounds (Gain OTT/Approach difficult & very difficult)
SG: Approach - Last 50 rounds (Gain Approach difficult & very difficult)
SG: Putting with 3 different filters (comp courses/greens, recent, Poa Trivialis)

The PLAYERS Championship DraftKings Top Plays (DK Price, Outright Odds, Model Rank)

Tommy Fleetwood $9.8K, +30/1 FD/DK, 8th in model

Key Stats

1st in Good Drive % (Scoring Conditions Difficult/Very Difficult Filters)
9th in Bogey AVD % (Par 3&4 Scoring Average/Difficult)
13th in SG: BS (L20 Rounds)
10th in Overall 100-150 (Gain APP Difficult/Very Difficult)

Fleetwood is playing some of the best golf of his career, gaining on approach and off the tee in thirteen tournaments straight. Ball Striking is paramount at TPC Sawgrass, and Fleetwood has been one of the tour's best over his career, especially in the last 6 months. Fleetwood is also one of the most accurate drivers of the golf ball, and when he does find himself in trouble, he has great touch around the greens and has the skill set to not compound mistakes and save plenty of bogeys.

Sepp Straka, $8.6K, +45/1 FD, 3rd in model

Key Stats

1st in Good Drive % (Gain APP/OTT Difficult/Very Difficult)
3rd in SG: APP (L20 Rounds)
17th in SG: P (L50 Rounds Poa Trivialis)
5th in SG: T2G (OTT Club Less Than Driver)

Sepp, just like Fleetwood, is playing the best golf of his career. Sepp is hot off of a T5 at the API, won the Amex Express in mid-January, and a T7 at Pebble Beach in February. Sepp is 3rd in the field in strokes gained on approach in the last 20 rounds, despite his complete disaster at the Genesis. Sepp fits TPC Sawgrass like a glove; he’s accurate off the tee, has elite irons, and possesses a short game that spikes often. This course is littered with hazards, and many golfers on tour have said this course comes with a lot of variance, which is why past winners also mix in some missed cuts over the years, so course history is not indicative of future success, but, Sepp has had success here; he finished T16 in 2024 and T9 in 2022.

Aaron Rai, $7.1K, +70/1 DK, 12th in model

Key Stats

5th in Driving Accuracy % (Fairway Accuracy Average/Difficult)
25th in SG: APP (L20 Rounds)
17th in SG: BS (L20 Rounds)
22nd in SG: OTT (Scoring Conditions Average/Difficult/Very Difficult Less Than Driver)

Rai, for years, had been one of the most underrated ball strikers on the PGA tour, but he took his game to the next level last year. Putting, once, a flaw in his game, he has finally figured it out on the greens. Like Sepp and Fleetwood, Rai is also one of the most accurate drivers on tour and has elite iron play. Rai has also had success at TPC Sawgrass, finishing T35 in 2024, and T19 in 2023.

Joel Dahmen $5.1K, +225/1 BOL, 11th in model

Key Stats

15th in SG: OTT (Scoring Conditions Average/Difficult/Very Difficult Less Than Driver)
6th in SG: BS (Water Danger High)
4th in SG: BS (Gain OTT/APP Difficult/Very Difficult)
3rd in SG: APP (Gain APP Difficult/Very Difficult)

Dahmen does two things well: he hits good approach shots and keeps his drives straight. Lucky for him, those two parts of his game are the most indicative for success at TPC Sawgrass. Dahmen has gained strokes OTT and on APP in five straight tournaments and is looking to keep the streak going, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it did. Dahmen has made six career starts at TPC Sawgrass; in those six starts, Dahmen gained on APP in every tournament and has gained OTT in five of six. Dahmen has also only missed one cut here. At 5100, in his best form since 2020/2021, and at a course at which he has had plenty of success over the years, I am willing to take a shot at Dahmen this week.

PLAY OF THE WEEK: Sepp Straka

4for4 Additional Info:

Be sure to be in the 4for4 Discord, as I may push out additional plays that are not in the article, or there may be some odds movement on some of the bets. The best way to get access to the bets as they are released is to join our subscriber-only Discord. All of our staff’s plays are released there, and that is the best way to guarantee you get the original line we post. Join the Discord to receive push notifications whenever a prop is released by the 4for4 team. Go to Channels & Roles and customize your Discord experience.

You can join our Discord for free here! Make sure to add the PGA-Betting Channel to your channel list and turn on alerts for @Staff_Golf_Plays to get notifications for the bets as they are released.

For more betting content and takeaways, check out my Twitter (@JakeLotenberg2) and subscribe to our Discord. I’ll be tracking my best bet results at the end of each week and updating the article accordingly the following week.

This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.