10 Risky Fantasy Football Players Based on ADP

Aug 10, 2018

There are few things more difficult in this life than avoiding temptation. Part of us knows what is tempting us will not make us happy in the long run, but it looks attractive. “Maybe the consequences won’t be that bad,” we tell ourselves. Ultimately, it’s avoiding that temptation which is the best course of action.

Fast food. Passive aggressive workplace e-mails. Anybody you meet at a bar after 1:00 AM. Early-round quarterbacks. Amari Cooper.

They feel so good in the moment. Then you wake up the next day with varying levels of regret (especially if you met Amari Cooper in your roster app after 1:00 AM and woke up with him in your bed of starters Sunday afternoon).

Site-Specific Sleepers: Yahoo | ESPN | NFL.com | CBS

Luckily, 4for4 staffers don’t let 4for4 subscribers succumb to fantasy football draft temptation. We’re going to make it patently obvious that certain players are a bad, terrible, ghastly, horrific pick based on their overinflated average draft positions.

We’re going to do this by introducing you to the ADP Bargains (Sleepers) tool that debuted to subscribers this season. “But Stephen, you said you were going to show us risky players.”

Damn it, imaginary voice! We’re getting there.

You see, once you input your league settings and ADP source, the ADP Bargains tool doubles as a Players to Avoid tool. Just scroll to the bottom of the table to find the players being drafted earlier than their 4for4 ranking to find the riskiest players. The larger the negative Bargain Score, the riskier the player.

Here are some of those risky players, based on overall ADP data, in a 12-team PPR league that starts 2-3 RBs, 2-3 WRs, and one TE. We’ll be sure to include a few standard league players to avoid as well at the end of the article.

Risky PPR League Players at Current ADP

RB Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans

It’s important to note injuries can happen to any player in the NFL. An argument can be made that if a player on the depth chart gets injured, that greatly increases the other’s volume. Some are making this argument with Henry. I choose to operate with what he know for sure. This backfield will be a split backfield. Henry has a bargain score worse than -45. This means Henry’s ADP in the fourth round is more than three rounds earlier than it should be, based on our PPR ranking for Henry (outside the top 30 RBs in PPR). Henry’s ranking is based on the presence of elusive pass-catching RB Dion Lewis and Henry’s lack of pass-catching chops in his NFL seasons.

RB Kerryon Johnson, Detroit Lions

There’s a lot to like about Johnson’s talent as a rookie out of Auburn, and Detroit traded up to get him. However as it stands now, this is a very crowded backfield. Former Patriots defensive coordinator and current Lions head coach Matt Patricia signed former Patriots RB LeGarrette Blount, and Theo Riddick is one of the more effective third-down/pass-catching running backs in the league. Volume is the issue for Johnson. Therefore, his ADP near the round 7-8 turn is three rounds higher than we would like in PPR leagues.

RB Sony Michel, New England Patriots

Did the Patriots spend a first-round pick on Michel? Yes, but it would be a stunner if Bill Belichick all of a sudden made a rookie his bell cow back. He’s being drafted in the fifth round, despite Rex Burkhead likely continuing his valuable red zone/goal-line back role. Don’t forget that in games both Dion Lewis and Rex Burkhead were active last season, Burkhead outscored him. That makes Michel overpriced at his ADP. His ball security history is also a major concern that could submarine his fantasy week at any moment with Belichick’s history of benching fumblers.

WR Julian Edelman, New England Patriots

Continue reading to see why Julian Edelman is a risky fantasy pick this year, and to see the rest of Steve's risky picks for the 2018 fantasy season ...