NFL Week 11 Betting Preview & Picks

Nov 16, 2018

TNF Recap: Whether you followed my Seattle pick last night or faded it, hopefully, you bought the hook. The Seahawks were a 3-point home favorite and following a fourth-quarter rally led by Russell Wilson and Mike McCarthy (who I believe also had Seattle at the betting window), won 27-24 over the Packers. If you took the Seahawks and bought the hook down to 2.5, congrats, you won. If you faded me and took the Pack but bet it up to 3.5, congrats, you won. For record-keeping purposes, it was officially a push for me so I am now 34-15-2 against the spread this NFL season.

Here are my plays for Sunday’s Week 11 slate…

453 Dallas Cowboys at 454 Atlanta Falcons

Spread: Falcons -3
O/U: 49
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET

Line Movement

The point spread has not moved off the original number of 3, the total climbed from 47.5 up to 49 at most sportsbooks.

Public Betting

While 53 percent of the betting tickets wagered at online sportsbooks are on the Cowboys, 68 percent of the money is on the Falcons to cover the spread. The betting tickets (86 percent) and money wagered (97 percent) are both on the over, however.

Trends

The favorite is 4-1 against the spread in the last five meetings between these two teams while the Cowboys are 2-5 at the betting window in their last seven games versus the Falcons overall. The under is also 4-1 in the last five meetings between these two teams in Atlanta.

Prediction

The Falcons have averaged 32.2 points per game in their five home contests this season so the Cowboy defense will certainly have their work cut out for them on Sunday. That said, this matchup is all about Ezekiel Elliott versus that horrendous Atlanta defense.

Last Sunday in Cleveland, the Falcons surrendered 176 rushing yards to rookie Nick Chubb on 20 carries. Chubb’s performance wasn’t a fluke either, as Atlanta’s defense ranks 31^st in Football Outsiders’ rush DVOA and has surrendered a league-high 84 receptions to running backs. Elliott, who ranks second in the NFL in rushing entering Week 11, should have a field day on Sunday.

Atlanta would have received a huge boost from the return of middle linebacker Deion Jones, who has been sidelined since September with a foot injury. But he was ruled out on Friday and won’t play, meaning the Falcons undersized front seven won’t have their best defender when trying to slow down Elliott.

If the Cowboys can keep the ball on the ground, chew up clock and control the ball, that not only benefits them every week, but specifically on Sunday in Atlanta. If Elliott has the ball all afternoon, that means it’s not in Matt Ryan’s hands. The Falcons are dangerous at home but that loss last week to the Browns was ugly. I wouldn’t be shocked if Dallas pulls off the small upset.

Pick: Cowboys +3

461 Tennessee Titans at 462 Indianapolis Colts

Spread: Colts -1
O/U: 50
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET

Line Movement

The Colts opened as 3-point home favorites but the line was bet down to 1 with action streaming in on the Titans. As for the total, it opened at 48 but was bet up two full points to 50.

Public Betting

As noted above, the action is on Tennessee this weekend. As of Friday afternoon, 57 percent of the betting tickets are on the Titans and 52 percent of the money is on the Titans to cover the spread. Meanwhile, 75 percent of the betting tickets and 86 percent of the money is on the over.

Trends

The favorite is 9-2 against the spread in the last 11 meetings between these two teams while the under cashed in 10 of the last 13 meetings at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Titans are also 3-10 against the spread in their last 13 games versus the Colts and are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games in Indy.

Prediction

Seven weeks ago, the Titans hosted the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles and upset Philly 26-23 in overtime as a 3-point dog. The very next week, Tennessee traveled to Buffalo and lost outright as a 6-point favorite. That loss to the Bills was the start of a three-game losing streak for the Titans, who were shut out by the Ravens 21-0 and were edged out by the Chargers 20-19 in London.

Following their bye, the Titans beat the Cowboys 28-14 as a 4.5-point road underdog on “Monday Night Football” and then shocked the NFL world a week ago by not only beating the Patriots 34-10, but physically dominating New England to the point that Tom Brady was pulled with plenty of time to spare in the fourth quarter.

Fast-forward to Sunday. Even though the Titans are squarely in the AFC wild card mix and this matchup versus the Colts is a divisional game, this situation reminds me of when Tennessee went on the road to face the Bills following that win over the Eagles. Perhaps Mike Vrabel’s team will remind themselves that they can’t suffer a letdown like that did in that spot but ultimately, I feel as though the Titans are overvalued as a 1-point dog.

Andrew Luck hasn’t been sacked in four weeks. He finally has some semblance of a running game for the first time in his career and he’s 9-0 in his career versus the Titans. Tennessee is averaging just 3.9 yards per carry this season, which ranks 28^th in the NFL. Their offensive line has struggled at times this year and Indy is stout against the run, allowing 3.9 yards per rush (ninth-best DVOA).

Marcus Mariota has been highly efficient in his last three games but if the Colts take away his rushing attack, I wouldn’t be shocked if Mariota struggled to move the Tennessee offense this weekend.

Pick: Colts -1

463 Houston Texans at 464 Washington Redskins

Spread: Redskins +3
O/U: 42.5
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET

Line Movement

The Redskins opened as a 3-point home underdog, the line dropped to 2.5 earlier in the week but is now back up to 3 at most sportsbooks. The total, meanwhile, hit the board at 43 but was bet down to 42.5.

Public Betting

The Texans are attracting most of the betting tickets (66 percent) and the money (82 percent) online, while both the betting tickets (52 percent) and money (82 percent) are both on the under.

Trends

The favorite is 4-0 against the spread in the last four meetings between these two teams.

Prediction

The Redskins beat the Bucs 16-3 last week in one of the ugliest games of the season. Their defense also allowed 501 yards to Tampa Bay and were out-gained by 215 yards. The reason for their victory? They forced four turnovers, including several with the Bucs inside the red zone.

Washington survived last week despite not having left tackle Trent Williams (thumb) and guards Shawn Lauvao (knee) and Brandon Scherff (shoulder). Williams is questionable to return on Sunday but Lauvao and Scherff are out of the season. Jonathan Cooper wasn’t even on a NFL roster a few weeks ago and now he’s starting at guard for the Redskins. Tony Bergstrom is now the starting right guard and Ty Nsekhe is protecting Alex Smith’s blindside. It’s a mess.

Two weeks ago the Redskins were dominated by the Falcons at home when Atlanta held Adrian Peterson to 17 yards rushing. If the Falcons can hold Washington’s running game in check with their mash unit up front, I don’t see how the Redskins move the ball versus J.J. Watt and Co. this weekend. As Atlanta proved, if Washington doesn’t have a running game it's instantly a one-dimensional offensively.

I’m laying the points.

Pick: Texans -3

467 Denver Broncos at 468 Los Angeles Chargers

Spread: Chargers -7
O/U: 45.5
Time: 4:05 p.m. ET

Line Movement

The point spread has not moved off the original number of 7 but the total has dropped from 47 down to 45.5.

Public Betting

The Chargers are receiving 72 percent of the betting tickets but 62 percent of the money is on the Broncos. The betting tickets and money is also split when it comes to the total, as the betting tickets (60 percent) is on the under but 56 percent of the money is on the over.

Trends

The under is 5-0 in the last five meetings between these two teams in Los Angeles/San Diego. The home team is also 3-0-1 against the number in the last four meetings between these divisional rivals but the underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The Broncos are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven road games versus the Chargers but they’re 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games versus L.A. overall.

Prediction

I hesitate to lay a full touchdown in a divisional game but I’ll gladly make the exception here with the Chargers. They haven’t allowed a single team to top 20 points against them in their last five games and have won six straight contests. Philip Rivers is putting together an excellent season with a 21-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio and Melvin Gordon might be the most underrated running back in the league.

Meanwhile, the Broncos are fresh off their bye but that doesn’t do anything for me. They were fresh coming off their bye last year under Vance Joseph and lost 23-10 to the Giants at home as a 13.5-point favorite. They were shut out by this very Charger team a week later in L.A. and strung together eight consecutive losses before thumping a hapless Jets team 23-0 in Week 14.

Vance Joseph will be searching for a new job in less than two months and the Broncos don’t have the talent to match up with a Chargers team that is rolling towards a playoff berth. I backed the Bolts as a 10-point road favorite last week when they went to Oakland and I’m going back to the well this Sunday.

Pick: Chargers -7