Divisional Round NFL Player Prop Bets: Best Player Props to Bet from Connor Allen

Jan 16, 2025

Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

The sizzle and heat from the regular season didn’t stop in the first round of the playoffs. I went 6-2 for +3.87 units with all of my unders cashing for us. We got a bit lucky with some plays but also very unlucky with a few others. Let’s break it down...

Wild Card Weekend Recap (6-2, +3.87 units)

Jayden Daniels over 45.5 rushing yards
Lamar Jackson under 220.5 passing yards
Keon Coleman under 2.5 receptions
James Cook over 10.5 receiving yards
Brian Robinson under 58.5 rushing and receiving yards
Dontayvion Wicks under 3.5 receptions
Nelson Agholor under 1.5 receptions
Aaron Jones under 14.5 carries

Review: Ed Feng (ThePowerRank on Twitter) brought up a great point on this week's episode of MTL. He essentially said if a team wants to stop a player, they probably can, it’s just about what they give up trying to do so. The Bucs not only spied Jayden Daniels but, at times, had two spies on him. I’m not sure I have ever seen that. Despite that, he still ran the ball 13 times, finishing with just 36 yards. Accordingly, they allowed him to throw for 268 yards, 2 touchdowns and average 7.7 yards per attempt. It was pretty crazy to watch in real time because they essentially said they were okay taking a risk on the back end in order to stop him running. He made them pay.

The other loss was James Cook over 10.5 receiving yards, which was tough because I was between Cook and Ty Johnson. Johnson, of course, finished with 26 receiving yards, while Cook didn’t see a target. The Bills also went massively run-heavy despite the Broncos' run defense playing fairly well all season. The matchup notes still existed, but with just 26 pass attempts to 41 runs from the Bills, it was a tough ask to get much from too many pass-catchers.

We nailed the handicaps on Lamar, Keon, Wicks, and Agholor. Jones was a bit of a lucky win as the Vikings clearly wanted to run the ball; they just fell behind a ton and couldn’t sustain drives. In normal game script, we probably lose that one. I think understanding where we got lucky or nailed the handicap is vital to growth as a bettor since you can win a bet without getting any of the handicap right and vice versa. In my opinion, how close you are on reasoning of a handicap is much more indicative of future results than just your w/l record.

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