DFS Air Yards Buy-Low Model: Week 3
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Each week I'll be posting the results of my Air Yards Buy-Low model in this space. The Buy-Low model looks at players who received opportunity in the form of targets and air yards and offers an expected fantasy points value based on those inputs. It then highlights which players underperformed relative to that expectation. The key insight behind the model is that opportunity is sticky and production in the form of catches, touchdowns and shot plays are not. You want to buy the signal and fade the noise. The model helps us do just that.
In GPPs, especially, you need to look beyond the scores and identify value plays that are low-owned that can set your team apart. Here is a list of receivers and running backs who have underperformed their volume thus far in 2018 that the model thinks could be in store for a bounce-back week in the near future. Maybe even this week.
| Player | Predicted FP | Actual Fp | Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 19.9 | 19.2 | -0.8 |
| Allen Robinson | 14.5 | 14.2 | -0.3 |
| Corey Davis | 13.6 | 11.4 | -2.3 |
| Robert Woods | 12.8 | 10.4 | -2.4 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 12.8 | 12.6 | -0.2 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 11.0 | 10.2 | -0.8 |
| George Kittle | 10.7 | 9.1 | -1.6 |
| Donte Moncrief | 10.4 | 7.9 | -2.5 |
| Adrian Peterson | 10.2 | 7.5 | -2.7 |
| Josh Gordon | 9.9 | 8.7 | -1.2 |
| Jimmy Graham | 9.7 | 9.2 | -0.5 |
| Travis Benjamin | 9.3 | 3.5 | -5.8 |
| Jakeem Grant | 9.2 | 6.8 | -2.4 |
| Paul Richardson | 9.2 | 8.3 | -0.9 |
| Pierre Garcon | 9.0 | 6.9 | -2.1 |
| James Washington | 9.0 | 8.4 | -0.6 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 8.9 | 6.0 | -2.9 |
| Deonte Thompson | 8.8 | 7.3 | -1.6 |
| Jack Doyle | 8.8 | 8.5 | -0.3 |
| Courtland Sutton | 8.6 | 4.6 | -4.0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 8.5 | 7.6 | -0.9 |
| Torrey Smith | 8.3 | 7.4 | -0.9 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 8.3 | 8.1 | -0.2 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 8.2 | 5.3 | -2.9 |
| David Njoku | 8.1 | 5.2 | -3.0 |
| Adam Humphries | 7.8 | 7.5 | -0.3 |
| Danny Amendola | 7.7 | 6.9 | -0.8 |
| Zay Jones | 7.6 | 7.5 | -0.2 |
| Jake Butt | 7.6 | 6.9 | -0.7 |
| Darren Sproles | 7.1 | 6.2 | -0.9 |
Key Takeaways
- Julio Jones ($7,900 DK/$8,700 FD) will never score a touchdown, we all know this, and the model is wrong. #neverjulio
- Allen Robinson ($5,400 DK/$6,500 FD) is a decent value and is getting an incredible amount of opportunity in the Chicago offense. He's accounted for 54 percent of the team's air yards and has a 30 percent target share. Over 21 targets he's yet to score a TD. That should change soon.
- Corey Davis ($4,400 DK/$5,900 FD) makes the list for a second straight week. His usage in the Titan's offense mirrors Robinson's in Chicago: lots of targets, lots of air yards and yet no TDs. The smart money says that 21 targets and 179 air yards in 2 games will eventually lead to a blow-up game with a TD attached. It also helps that he's cheap.
- Robert Woods ($5,100 DK/$6,700 FD) has more air yards than Brandin Cooks on the same number of targets. His issue has been his efficiency: his RACR is just 0.44, meaning he has converted every air yard thrown at him into just 0.44 receiving yards. That's not great, and there are other options on that offense should Woods continue to struggle, but for now bet on the opportunity, because fantasy points typically follow.
- Courtland Sutton ($3,500 DK/$4,700 FD) is one of the cheapest plays on the list and one of my favorites. The public believes the Denver/Baltimore game will be low scoring, which means Sutton will also be low owned. Meanwhile, he is seeing nearly as much opportunity as Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, and Sutton's targets are deep. A touchdown or two could be coming.
Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images.
