Streaming Kickers: Week 3 Targets

Sep 18, 2018

If you’re like most fantasy football players, kicker is a position you put zero thought into, and wish wasn’t a part of the draft altogether. Some leagues have done away with the kicker position, but for those who haven’t, there are actually a few ways to get an edge over your opponents when it comes to streaming kickers weekly.

Projecting a kicker’s output isn’t as difficult or random as you may think—in fact, taking a look at Vegas odds is the best way to accurately predict a kicker’s weekly potential. By focusing in on the team implied point totals, we can get a cumulative idea of how that offense will perform when it comes to settling for field goals, distance of kicks, and the like. For a more detailed explanation on using Vegas odds for successfully streaming kickers, I suggest checking out 4for4’s DFS Playbook Strategy article, which is packed with info on the most profitable way to predict the position.

Another metric useful in projecting a kicker’s output is 4for4’s schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed or aFPA. By removing the schedule bias, we can compare matchups in an apples-to-apples manner. By Week 4, there’s a solid sample size to work from, and the info gets more trustworthy with each data-filled week.

The goal in streaming is to roster a player who will return starting kicker fantasy points and Week 2 was a solid one. My star was Dustin Hopkins, who finished tied for fourth in the league with nine fantasy points, followed by decent performances from Brandon McManus (8 fantasy points), Caleb Sturgis (7) and Josh Lambo (7). The average for all six of my recommendations was 7.0, which translates to the 13th-best kicker on the week. The optimal streamer has 22 points this season, good enough for the second-highest point total at the position.

In order to provide advice that you can actually implement, candidates for streaming must be owned in no more than 40 percent of Yahoo fantasy leagues. As always, check 4for4’s rankings when making weekly decisions on any position.

Top Streaming Picks

Dan Bailey (Vikings) vs. Bills

Yep, you read that right—Bailey is now a member of the Minnesota Vikings after they released Daniel Carlson due to his three missed field goals on Sunday, including two crucial kicks in overtime. Bailey steps in at the optimal time, for a tilt against the hapless Bills, at home. The Vikings are currently favored to beat Buffalo by a ridiculous 17 points, which always bodes well for a kicker’s output. Only eight percent of Yahoo players held on to Bailey, so he should be sitting on most waiver wires this week.

Chandler Catanzaro (Buccaneers) vs. Steelers

Tampa Bay’s offense is playing lights out, posting 75 total points in their first two games this season. They get a home contest in Week 3, with an over/under of 53.5, the second-highest projected points on the slate. Catanzaro has missed one field goal and one extra point thus far, but with so many opportunities, it hasn’t really had an impact on his overall fantasy value. He’s a solid option at home this week and is rostered in just one percent of Yahoo leagues.