49ers-Packers Betting Preview & Pick: Will Pack Roll?

Oct 15, 2018

When you’re hitting 80 percent against the spread over six weeks in the NFL, you don’t get there without a handful of good fortunate. And that certainly was the case for me on Sunday.

To recap, I picked the Falcons -3 over the Bucs, the Steelers +3 over the Bengals, and the Chiefs +3.5 over the Patriots. If you were with me and saw how all three of those games ended, you too had an exhilarating ride.

Here’s how it all went down:

Cincinnati’s Joe Mixon scored a touchdown with 1:18 remaining in Cincinnati, giving the Bengals a 21-20 lead. If you played the Steelers on Friday when my plays were released, then you were still in great shape. If you waited until the line dropped and got Pittsburgh at +1, then you were staring at a push, which would have been a tough break seeing as how the Steelers held that late lead. No matter, Ben Roethlisberger hit Antonio Brown on a quick pass off the line of scrimmage and the proud Central Michigan University alum took it 31-yards to the house. A two-point conversation made it 28-21 in favor of the Steelers, who won outright.
In Atlanta, the Falcons held leads of 21-6 in the first quarter, 24-13 at halftime, and 31-22 with 6:28 remaining in the fourth quarter. But their depleted defense couldn’t keep Tampa Bay out of the end zone and with 3:47 left in the game, the Bucs scored to cut Atlanta’s lead to 31-29. Even if you bet the hook and took the Falcons at -2.5, you were still staring at a brutal beat at the hands of an Atlanta team that has blown fourth-quarter leads all year. Fortunately, Dan Quinn decided to attempt a 57-yard field goal with Matt Bryan with 1:10 remaining in the game, instead of punting on fourth down and forcing the Bucs to drive the length of the field. Quinn’s gamble was massive, as Bryant hit the field goal (while injuring himself in the process) and the Falcons took a 34-29 lead. Naturally, Jameis Winston drove the Bucs into the red zone because, of course he did, but a failed lateral ended the game and gave Atlanta backers the win.
Finally, if you saw the Sunday night game then you know how Chiefs-Patriots turned out. Kansas City looked dead in the water trailing 24-9 at halftime but Patrick Mahomes rallied the Chiefs in the second half, producing 31 points in the final two quarters. In the fourth quarter alone, the Chiefs went from losing by 4, winning by 3, losing by 4, losing by 7, tied, and then eventually lost on a 28-yard Stephen Gostkowski field goal, covering the 3.5 points in the process. It was the game of the year from an entertainment standpoint, especially if you had Kansas City and the points.

I feel incredibly fortunate to be 4-0 in Week 6 and 23-6-1 ATS on the year. I’m not going to hit 79 percent for the year—it’s impossible. It can’t hold up. But hopefully, we can keep riding this wave in the meantime.

Tonight, the Packers host the 49ers as sizable home favorites. Let’s dive in…

277 San Francisco 49ers at 278 Green Bay Packers

Spread: Packers -9
O/U: 46
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET

Line Movement

Green Bay opened as 7.5-point home favorites but the line was bet up to 9 at most books. The total also moved, dropping from 46.5 down to 46.

Public Betting

The Packers are receiving 77 percent of the betting tickets and 66 percent of the money ahead of tonight’s game. As of this writing, most of the betting tickets (66 percent) and money wagered (59 percent) are on the over.

Key Injuries

49ers coach Kyle Shanahan said over the weekend that running back Matt Breida (questionable, ankle) will be a game-time decision. Breida got in a limited practice on Saturday after sitting out the previous two days but if he can’t go, Alfred Morris will start.

Also, tight end George Kittle (knee) is questionable and receiver Trent Taylor (back) is doubtful, but Pierre Garcon (questionable, shoulder, knee) expects to play.

For Green Bay, the Packers will have tight end Jimmy Graham (knee), who was removed from their injury report on Friday. That said, receivers Randall Cobb (hamstring) and Geronimo Allison (questionable, hamstring) are questionable, as is guard Justin McCray (shoulder). Cobb and Allison will test out their injuries before the game tonight.

Trends

The 49ers are 4-11-2 against the spread in their last 17 games against the Packers and are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six trips to Lambeau. The over is also 6-2 against the number in the last eight meetings between these two teams.

Predictions

I’ve decided to label Week 6 as “Time to Get out Your Frustrations” week.

It all started on Thursday night when the Eagles thrashed the Giants 34-13 after pundits started to question whether they were in the midst of a Super Bowl hangover. The theme continued on Sunday when the injury-depleted Falcons snapped their three-game losing streak with a win over the Bucs, the Redskins moved past their embarrassing loss to the Saints on Monday night with an impressive victory over the Panthers, and the Cowboys routed the Jaguars 40-7 after a week filled with will-Jerry-Jones-fire-Jason-Garrett drama.

I see that theme carrying into tonight. This Packers team isn’t right. Mike McCarthy has taken heat over his game plans and play-calling (and rightfully so), Aaron Rodgers isn’t 100 percent and the injuries to the receivers has impacted the offense as well. But tonight is the night they take losses to Washington and Detroit, plus a tie against Minnesota, and rack up about 31 points in a blowout win over an overmatched, banged-up San Francisco squad.

I love live dogs. They create value for bettors because there are two ways they can win: either straight up or by covering the spread. But this Niners team isn’t a live dog. Their depth is being tested on both sides of the ball and the Packers’ defensive front has a massive advantage against the Niners’ offensive line. Sure, C.J. Beathard has played better than expected in place of Jimmy Garoppolo, but turnovers have been a problem and I could see the wheels falling off for him tonight. The Packers rank third in net yards per attempt, are ninth in points per drive and are a respectable 11th in pass DVOA.

The other issue facing San Francisco is that the defense has struggled. It’s true that Green Bay has had issues with consistency offensively but the Niners will be the cure for what ails the Packers. They rank 28th in the league in points allowed, surrendering 29.2 PPG game. It might be a slow build up, but I see the Packers pulling away fairly early tonight and cruising to a comfortable cover.

Pick: Packers -9