Streaming Quarterbacks: Week 8 Targets

Oct 23, 2018

Cursed. Or, is it Kearse’d?

The fantasy community was plagued yet again in Week 7 with nerve-racking on-field play with frustrating results. Keenan Allen took his frustrations out on an end-zone pylon and is still without a touchdown since Week 1. Cam Newton had five passing yards at the end of the first quarter and only 24 by the end of the half. The Browns, in a prime matchup against Tampa Bay (25.5 schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks entering Week 7), barely manage 300 yards of total offense. The results aren’t always what we hope for, but we can always go back to the process that led us there.

The process led us to recommend Mitch Trubisky in Week 7. Did the process account for Trubisky accruing 32 percent of his fantasy points with his legs? Well, no. The QB2 finish looks great on our stat sheet, but here’s where the unpredictability of fantasy football can be a good thing. Our top-recommendation (Joe Flacco) finished as the QB11 as we head into Week 8. The fantasy playoffs are starting to come into focus for a lot of leagues with less of the former popular plays available on the wire. Let’s dig into the matchups and see what we can find.

First, let’s visit 4for4’s Schedule-Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (aFPA) ranks which are updated each week. Noticeable changes from Week 7 to Week 8 include:

LAR up from 18.1 to 16.6.
JAX up from 16.5 to 14.8.
WAS down from 15.7 to 17.2.
CHI down from 15.7 to 16.8.

Injuries and personnel changes have altered our views on many of the defenses originally viewed as positive matchups to target. Defenses are discussed above, and injuries are discussed in the section below. As always, the other guidelines include:

Only quarterbacks with no more than a 40 percent ownership in Yahoo leagues are considered.
Ancillary metrics and game conditions (e.g. defensive ranking, weather) will be factored into the analysis.
Positive matchups for all pass catchers will be considered.
4for4 rankings should always be consulted for league-specific decisions.

Key Defensive Injuries

Tyler Patmon and Donald Payne, Jaguars (Neck, MCL) – The swag is gone and the injuries are piling up. Houston continued the trend of rushing success against the formerly fearsome defense in Week 7 and the loss of their cornerback and linebacker won’t help.

Kwon Alexander, Buccaneers (Knee) – The initial concern, now confirmed, is that the linebacker tore his ACL. Tampa Bay was already one of the best defenses to target with additional injuries keeping their offense in pass-heavy game scripts. They travel to Cincinnati to face the reeling Bengals off a horrific loss to Kansas City.

Adrian Colbert, 49ers (Leg) – The actual injury was undisclosed, but the 49ers free safety spent an extended amount of time with the trainers before being carted to the locker room. San Francisco could use the help as they travel to Arizona in Week 8.

Top Streaming Picks

Eli Manning vs Redskins

Eli Manning’s been able to produce when given time to set up throws. The swing passes and dump-off passes to Saquon Barkley have nearly become telegraphed (22 percent target share), but it’s been largely due to pressure. That bodes well for Manning in Week 8. Washington (17.2 aFPA) has allowed the ninth-highest completion rate and is 13^th in sacks (2.3 per game). The Giants were already able to script a game plan for Eli to throw for nearly 400 yards in Week 7 against Atlanta (22.9 aFPA) who came into the game averaging 1.7 sacks per game. It’s never easy starting Manning, but we trust in The Process and he’s one of our top streaming picks for Week 8.

Manning is available in 77 percent of Yahoo leagues.