Streaming Quarterbacks: Week 10 Targets

Nov 05, 2019

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It’s all about finding a rhythm.

Monday and Tuesday we review the previous week’s matchups for updates to injuries or usage trends. Wednesday starts the look-ahead as our waivers process. Thursday’s practice reports give us more clarity as vets should be returning to the field. Friday injury designations leave us with a day to stew before Adam Schefter gives us the final news before Sunday morning. Per sources, of course.

Other Week 10 Streaming Articles: TE | K | D/ST

It’s a long fantasy season, but our approach to the game improves as our process improves. We learn about stable, predictive metrics and apply them to our evaluations, also identifying weak defensive matchups using available tools. You can refine your process further even by limiting the number of analysts you rely on for actionable information. A detailed but streamlined method has allowed us to hit on multiple top plays every week this season. Now, with the fantasy playoffs only a few weeks out, there’s a sense of urgency each week as teams make roster moves with an eye on winning their league.

Week 10 is the worst of the bye-week gauntlet. We’ve got six teams out with at least three notable quarterbacks out of our lineups. Four, if we’re still counting Gardener Minshew. With a few of our favorite starters in questionable situations, we’ll parse the data regarding the next slate of games for viable streamers in the upcoming week.

Week 9 Review

We're back on track after a rough Week 9, with two recommendations finishing as a QB1 with the others giving a safe(ish) floor. Here’s how the scores ended up with key takeaways below:

Derek Carr – 19.6 points (QB12)
Sam Darnold – 12.5 points (QB22)
Matt Moore – 15.0 points (QB18)
Ryan Fitzpatrick – 23.7 points (QB5)

If we just considered results, there’d be little to no concern. But we need to evaluate these performances before we move on to the next week. We expected Carr and Fitzpatrick to perform given their matchups and tendencies. Moore had a chance to succeed with Andy Reid pulling the strings. Speaking of head coaches, Sam Darnold’s performance should now give us pause. We all expected more. Nearly 65% of his passes were five air yards or less as the Gase-led Jets decided to not take advantage of the Dolphins defense that had given up nearly 100 deep passing yards in nearly four straight games. Darnold now becomes a floor play at best in future matchups as we adjust to Jets’ offensive game plan.

Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed

Next, let’s visit 4for4’s Schedule-Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed ranks updated through Week 10. While the tool accounts for full-season performance, we'll always dig into recent trends that may be lost in the full data set. Recent trends may give us a better picture as we look to the upcoming matchups. Notable rankings for defensive units include:

NYJ down 6 spots to #19 (17.7 aFPA)
CHI down 3 spots to #9 (14 aFPA)
ARI down 2 spots to #31 (23.5 aFPA)
JAX up 3 spots to #17 (16.7 aFPA)
BAL up 4 spots to #12 (15 aFPA)
LAC up 4 spots to #6 (13.6 aFPA)

Baltimore's acquisition of Earl Thomas and Marcus Peters, plus the emergence of Marlon Humphrey, has put the Ravens' defense back on our list of defenses to avoid. After their performance against New England, fantasy managers should be looking for other options in future matchups. The Jets lie on the opposite end of the spectrum. Offenses have been able to find success in almost every facet of the game against New York. After their performance in Week 9 against Miami, the Jets offer a window of hope for the ailing Giants and are discussed in the recommendations below.

Key Defensive Injuries

Finally, we’ll review injuries along with the guidelines that will be used each week to find viable options on the waiver wire:

Only quarterbacks with no more than a 50% ownership in Yahoo leagues considered.
Ancillary metrics and game conditions (e.g. defensive ranking, weather) will be factored into the analysis.
Positive matchups for all pass catchers to be considered.
4for4 rankings should always be consulted for league-specific decisions.

Malcolm Butler (Titans, Wrist) – The Titans’ corner hurt his wrist late in the first half on a touchdown catch by Curtis Samuel. X-rays revealed that Butler had fractured his wrist and he’ll likely need surgery to repair it. If placed on IR, his season would be over as the Titans have already used their two IR-return slots this season. Their secondary (16.3 aFPA) will have a tough time in Week 10 with the Chiefs coming to town.

Other Notable Injuries: Denzel Perryman (Chargers, Knee), Tim Settle (Washington, Hamstring), Carl Nassib (Buccaneers, Groin), Carlton Davis (Buccaneers, Hip)