Sneaky Starts: Week 11

Nov 13, 2019

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All but the luckiest fantasy owners at some point need to find the proverbial diamond in the rough—a waiver wire or bench player capable of putting up some points in a pinch. This weekly feature is dedicated to that part of fantasy football. It's not pretty, but it's part of the game.

A good way to identify a potential spot start is to leverage 4for4’s signature strength-of-schedule metric, adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA). Many sites publish raw fantasy points allowed by position, but 4for4 goes a step further and adjusts those numbers for a defense’s relative year-to-date schedule strength. So if a defense has seen a murderer’s row of running backs, it will be reflected in the defense’s aFPA. As a ranker, I use this metric weekly when putting together our award-winning projections.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at the top Sneaky Starts for Week 11...

Quarterbacks

Kyle Allen, Panthers (vs. ATL, 27th in QB aFPA)

Allen has had three solid fantasy outings in his last four games, with the lone exception being his three-interception debacle against the 49ers. He had 227/2 against the Buccaneers, 232/2 against the Titans and 307/1 last week against the Packers. The Falcons held up well against Drew Brees last week (287/0), but they yielded 182/2 to Russell Wilson and 268/2 to Jared Goff in recent weeks.

Sam Darnold, Jets (@ WAS, 19)

Darnold has been a risky start this year, but outside of his four-interception outing against the Patriots in Week 7, he has been pretty productive. He had 338/2 against the Cowboys in Week 6, 218/2 (along with three interceptions) against the Jaguars in Week 8, 260/1 against the Dolphins in Week 9 and 230/1 (with a rush TD) last week against the Giants.

Nick Foles, Jaguars (@ IND, 13)

It’s Foles’ first game back from injury and he has a so-so matchup against the Colts indoors at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Jaguars have one rushing touchdown on the year compared to 14 passing touchdowns, so if that trend holds, Foles could be good for two or more touchdowns against the Colts. As a team, the Jaguars have averaged 262 pass yards and 1.6 passing touchdowns per game this season.