The Rundown: Week 13

Nov 29, 2019

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Hopefully, everyone is eating Thanksgiving leftovers with their pants unbuckled and their shame somewhere far away. While you are laying on the couch, hoping to never move again (maybe that's just me), you are touching up lineups and scouring the waiver wire for any last-minute replacements as the fantasy playoffs draw near.

There should be some key games this week, both positive and negative, that will impact even the elite fantasy options so read carefully. As always, the Thursday preview along with stats to know is already available and this will focus on the rest of the slate including start/sit recommendations.

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Fantasy Rating Key

(5) - Elite option. Must start.
(4) - Strong option. Likely start.
(3) - Good option. Low-end starter to high-end backup.
(2) - Weak option. Possible flex or desperation play.
(1) - Bad option. Bench in nearly all cases.
(0) - Not an option. Injured, bench, or waivers.

Titans @ Colts

Spread: Colts -2.5 | Total: 43.5

Things have changed since their first matchup in Week 2. Marcus Mariota is an afterthought with Ryan Tannehill performing admirably since taking over. It culminated with nearly 500 total yards of offense last week against the Jaguars. As for the Colts, they are missing Marlon Mack, but Jonathan Williams has done well in his stead so far. He gets a tough Titans run defense this week that will test his ability to keep this going.

Tennessee Titans

The Colts run defense is formidable as well, which should make things more difficult for Derrick Henry. That said, he should get the volume to be effective, Henry had 17 total touches in the Week 2 matchup. The passing game will likely be conservative and focused on short passes and avoiding turnovers, which will limit the upside.

Team Trends That Matter

Lead the NFL with a 72.4% red zone touchdown conversion rate.
The last three opposing running backs have all exceeded 100 total yards.
Have allowed at least seven catches to the last four top wide receivers.

Fantasy Rating and a Stat to Know

QB Ryan Tannehill (2) - Five straight games with 18 or more fantasy points
RB Derrick Henry (5) - The RB2 since Week 9
WR A.J. Brown (2) - 37 snaps in Week 12 was his lowest in seven games
WR Corey Davis (1) - Four straight weeks with fewer total targets
TE Jonnu Smith (1) - 94% snap share in Week 12 was a 2019 best

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts own the highest total rushing yards against the Titans this year with 167. Again, that was with Marlon Mack but it should still encourage them to run often once again. With Eric Ebron out, the passing game will be more limited, but it will also funnel more playing time and targets toward TY Hilton and Jack Doyle.

Team Trends That Matter

Third slowest pace (32.83 seconds) on offense when accounting for situation and score.
Haven’t allowed an opposing quarterback to reach 20 fantasy points since Week 3.
Since a Week 2 rushing touchdown by Derrick Henry, the Colts have allowed just four since but only one has been to a running back.

Fantasy Rating and a Stat to Know

QB Jacoby Brissett (2) - Four straight games with 25 passing attempts or less
RB Jonathan Williams (4) - The RB5 over the past two weeks
RB Nyhiem Hines (1) - Saw a season high nine carries last week with Marlon Mack out
WR T.Y. Hilton (3) - Five or more targets in each of his last four meetings against the Titans
WR Zach Pascal (0) - Week 12 was his third game this year with zero PPR points
TE Jack Doyle (3) - Hasn’t exceeded five targets in a game since the Colts Week 6 bye